Brasileiro Gameweek 8
Mar 22, 2026 7.00pm
Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama vs Gremio - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Vasco da Gama

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2026 11.30pm
Cruzeiro 3 - 3 Vasco
Goals scored
8
Top scorer
Cauan Barros

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
Mar 16, 2026 11.00pm
Chapecoense 1 - 1 Gremio
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Carlos Vinicius

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Gremio has a probability of 26.07% and a draw has a probability of 25.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win is 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Gremio win is 0-1 (7.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.24%).

Result

Vasco da Gama 48.05% (+0.20)
Draw 25.91% (+0.18)
Gremio 26.07% (-0.31)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.27% (-0.93)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.34% (-0.77)
Under 1.5 25.66% (+0.77)
Over 2.5 49.83% (-1.32)
Under 2.5 50.17% (+1.32)
Over 3.5 27.8% (-1.34)
Under 3.5 72.2% (+1.35)
Over 4.5 15.34% (-1.02)
Under 4.5 84.66% (+1.01)

First Half Winner

Vasco da Gama 31.78% (-0.09)
Draw 44.27% (-0.65)
Gremio 23.95% (+0.74)

Team To Score First

Vasco da Gama 52.84% (-0.47)
No Goal 7.19% (+0.27)
Gremio 39.97% (+0.22)

Corners

Over 8 59.48% (+1.25)
Equal 8 11.38% (-0.07)
Under 8 29.13% (-1.18)
Over 9 47.72% (+1.20)
Equal 9 11.76% (+0.05)
Under 9 40.52% (-1.25)
Over 10.5 36.58% (+1.05)
Under 10.5 63.42% (-1.05)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 1.5 45.36% (-0.58)
Under 1.5 54.64% (+0.58)
Over 2.5 20.29% (-0.63)
Under 2.5 79.71% (+0.62)
Over 3.5 7.23% (-0.38)
Under 3.5 92.77% (+0.38)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5 62.18% (-0.55)
Under 0.5 37.82% (+0.55)
Over 1.5 27.89% (-0.90)
Under 1.5 72.11% (+0.90)
Over 2.5 9.13% (-0.67)
Under 2.5 90.87% (+0.68)
Over 3.5 2.54% (-0.30)
Under 3.5 97.46% (+0.29)

Score analysis

Vasco da Gama 48.05%
Draw 25.92%
Gremio 26.08%
Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 11% (+0.39)
2-1 @ 9.66% (+0.03)
2-0 @ 8.27% (+0.28)
3-1 @ 4.87% (-0.08)
3-0 @ 4.31% (+0.06)
3-2 @ 2.84% (-0.15)
Other @ 7.1% (-0.36)
Total : 48.05%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.24% (+0.17)
0-0 @ 7.19% (+0.27)
2-2 @ 5.32% (-0.13)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.09)
Other @ 0.13% (-0.03)
Total : 25.92%
Gremio
0-1 @ 7.52% (+0.21)
1-2 @ 6.61% (-0.05)
0-2 @ 3.99% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 2.28% (-0.13)
2-3 @ 1.82% (-0.14)
0-3 @ 1.45% (-0.04)
Other @ 2.41% (-0.26)
Total : 26.08%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Nov 20, 2025 12.30am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 15
Jul 19, 2025 9.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 20
Jul 28, 2024 11.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Cristian Pavon 45'+7' yellowcard
  • Yeferson Soteldo 57' goal
  • Douglas Moreira 68' yellowcard
  • Walter Kannemann 69' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matheus Carvalho 1'
  • yellowcard Lucas Piton 35'
  • yellowcard David 69'
  • yellowcard Paulo Henrique 79'
Brasileiro Gameweek 1
Apr 14, 2024 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
  • Rossi 17' yellowcard
  • David 24' goal
  • Matheus Carvalho 37' goal
  • Ramon Diaz 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Juan Sforza 65' yellowcard
  • Joao Victor 90'+6' yellowcard
  • Lucas Piton 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Gustavo Martins 68'
  • yellowcard Leo Pele 90'+1'
Brasileiro Gameweek 37
Dec 3, 2023 9.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Rodrigo Ely 35' goal
  • Luis Suarez 46' goal
  • Gustavo Martins 48' yellowcard
  • Bruno Alves 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Nathan 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marlon Gomes 75'
Brasileiro Gameweek 18
Aug 6, 2023 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
  • Bruno Praxedes 47' yellowcard
  • Pablo Vegetti 80' goal
  • yellowcard Reinaldo 45'