Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 48.79%. A draw had a probability of 25.75% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 25.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%) , while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.