Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 43.67%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (8.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.