Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (8.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.