Brasileiro Gameweek 1
Jan 28, 2026 11.00pm
Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Corinthians vs Bahia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Corinthians

All competitions
Last game
Dec 7, 2025 7.00pm
Corinthians 1 - 1 Juventude

Bahia

All competitions
Last game
Dec 7, 2025 7.00pm
Fluminense 2 - 0 Bahia

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Corinthians win with a probability of 45.51%. A draw has a probability of 27.72% and a win for Bahia has a probability of 26.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.84%) , while for a Bahia win it is 0-1 (8.76%).

Result

Corinthians 45.51% (-0.72)
Draw 27.72% (+0.93)
Bahia 26.77% (-0.25)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.36% (-0.67)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.85% (-0.81)
Under 1.5 31.15% (+0.80)
Over 2.5 43.06% (-0.85)
Under 2.5 56.94% (+0.85)
Over 3.5 21.72% (-0.58)
Under 3.5 78.25% (+0.55)
Over 4.5 10.91% (-0.56)
Under 4.5 89.09% (+0.55)

First Half Winner

Corinthians 34.48% (-0.38)
Draw 45.22% (+0.29)
Bahia 20.3% (+0.09)

Team To Score First

Corinthians 54.83% (-1.04)
No Goal 9.52% (+0.59)
Bahia 35.65% (+0.45)

Corners

Over 8 58.87% (-1.68)
Equal 8 11.4% (+0.15)
Under 8 29.74% (+1.55)
Over 9 47.16% (-1.67)
Equal 9 11.71% (-0.03)
Under 9 41.13% (+1.68)
Over 10.5 36.12% (-1.50)
Under 10.5 63.88% (+1.50)

Corinthians Goals

Over 1.5 39.66% (-0.75)
Under 1.5 60.34% (+0.75)
Over 2.5 15.47% (-0.47)
Under 2.5 84.53% (+0.47)
Over 3.5 4.83% (-0.25)
Under 3.5 95.17% (+0.25)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5 60.39% (-0.22)
Under 0.5 39.61% (+0.22)
Over 1.5 25.36% (-0.25)
Under 1.5 74.64% (+0.25)
Over 2.5 7.7% (-0.33)
Under 2.5 92.3% (+0.33)
Over 3.5 1.76% (-0.11)
Under 3.5 98.24% (+0.10)

Score analysis

Corinthians 45.51%
Draw 27.71%
Bahia 26.76%
Corinthians
1-0 @ 12.85% (+0.09)
2-1 @ 9.4% (-0.11)
2-0 @ 8.51% (-0.17)
3-1 @ 4.03% (-0.07)
3-0 @ 3.91% (-0.09)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.11)
Other @ 4.8% (-0.28)
Total : 45.51%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.84% (+0.16)
0-0 @ 9.52% (+0.59)
2-2 @ 4.63% (+0.13)
Other @ 0.03% (+0.02)
Total : 27.71%
Bahia
0-1 @ 8.76% (+0.08)
1-2 @ 6.57% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 4.45% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 2.14% (-0.09)
2-3 @ 1.65% (-0.12)
0-3 @ 1.46% (-0.07)
Other @ 1.73% (-0.13)
Total : 26.76%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Aug 17, 2025 1.00am
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 1
Mar 31, 2025 12.00am
1
1
HT : 2 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Everton Ribeiro 43' yellowcard
  • Everton Ribeiro 43' yellowcard
  • Gilberto 45'+1' goal
  • Gilberto 45'+1' goal
  • Everton Ribeiro 51' redcard
  • Everton Ribeiro 51' redcard
  • Jean Lucas 63' yellowcard
  • Jean Lucas 63' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 73' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 73' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Joao Pedro de Sousa Rodrigues 62'
  • yellowcard Joao Pedro de Sousa Rodrigues 62'
  • yellowcard Breno Bidon 85'
  • yellowcard Breno Bidon 85'
  • goal Hector Hernandez 90'
  • goal Hector Hernandez 90'
Brasileiro Gameweek 37
Dec 3, 2024 11.00pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Arena Corinthians
  • Memphis Depay 12' goal
  • Yuri Alberto 45'+4' goal
  • Memphis Depay 61' goal
  • Gustavo Henrique 68' yellowcard
  • Raniele 69' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gabriel Xavier 59'
  • yellowcard Luciano Rodriguez 68'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Acevedo 68'
  • yellowcard Jean Lucas 73'
Brasileiro Gameweek 18
Jul 21, 2024 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Caio Alexandre 27' yellowcard
  • Gustavo Henrique 37' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Teixeira 54' yellowcard
  • Victor Cuesta 65' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ryan 36'
  • goal Angel Romero 37'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Henrique 39'
  • yellowcard Kanu 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Andre Ramalho 90'+4'
Brasileiro Gameweek 35
Nov 25, 2023 12.00am
1
5
HT : 0 3
FT Arena Corinthians
  • Gil 27' yellowcard
  • Renato Augusto 30' yellowcard
  • Renato Augusto 67' goal
  • goal Rezende 4'
  • goal Cauly Oliveira Souza 16'
  • goal Thaciano 29'
  • yellowcard Vitor Hugo 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Thaciano 50'
  • yellowcard Gilberto 64'
  • goal Ademir 75'
  • goal Thaciano 85'
Brasileiro Gameweek 16
Jul 22, 2023 10.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Kanu 86' yellowcard
  • Ademir 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Yago 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Murillo 90'
  • yellowcard Gil 90'+3'