Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 54.32%. A draw had a probability of 25.93% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 19.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%) , while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.