Mar 19, 2026 12.30am

3

2

HT : 0 1

FT Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

José Luis Rodríguez 46'
Johan Rojas 46'
Nuno Moreira 59'
Adson 68'
Claudio Spinelli 68'
Adson 69'
Claudio Spinelli 69'
79'
Brenner 79'
Brenner 80'
Claudio Spinelli 88'
Thiago Mendes 90'+5'

Agustín Canobbio 1'
Otávio 46'
Hércules 54'
67'
Rodrigo Castillo 67'
Ganso 68'
Rodrigo Castillo 69'
Ganso 69'
Guga 79'
79'
Kevin Serna 79'
Guga 80'
Kevin Serna 80'

Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Vasco da Gama

All competitions

D
W
L
L
D
L

Brasileiro

D
W
L
L
D
L

Last game

Mar 15, 2026 11.30pm

Cruzeiro 3 - 3 Vasco

Goals scored

13

Top scorer

Cauan Barros

Fluminense

All competitions

W
W
L
W
D
W

Brasileiro

W
W
L
W
D
W

Last game

Mar 15, 2026 7.00pm

Fluminense 3 - 2 Athletico PR

Goals scored

13

Top scorer

Luciano Acosta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (8.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.

Result

Vasco da Gama 40.44% ▲ (+0.02)

Draw 26.57%

Fluminense 32.99% ▼ (-0.02)

Both Teams to Score:

54.44% ▼ (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.12% ▼ (-0.05)

Under 1.5 25.88% ▲ (+0.06)

Over 2.5 49.73% ▼ (-0.11)

Under 2.5 50.27% ▲ (+0.11)

Over 3.5 28.12% ▼ (-0.08)

Under 3.5 71.88% ▲ (+0.07)

Over 4.5 15.53% ▼ (-0.07)

Under 4.5 84.47% ▲ (+0.07)

First Half Winner

Vasco da Gama 28.36%

Draw 44.73%

Fluminense 26.91%

Team To Score First

Vasco da Gama 45.91%

No Goal 7.35% ▲ (+0.01)

Fluminense 46.74% ▼ (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 57.71% ▼ (-0.02)

Equal 8 11.22%

Under 8 31.07% ▲ (+0.02)

Over 9 46.29% ▼ (-0.01)

Equal 9 11.42%

Under 9 42.29% ▲ (+0.02)

Over 10.5 35.59% ▼ (-0.01)

Under 10.5 64.41% ▲ (+0.01)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 1.5 39.69% ▼ (-0.06)

Under 1.5 60.31% ▲ (+0.06)

Over 2.5 16.41% ▼ (-0.04)

Under 2.5 83.59% ▲ (+0.05)

Over 3.5 5.67% ▼ (-0.04)

Under 3.5 94.33% ▲ (+0.04)

Fluminense Goals

Over 0.5 67.53% ▼ (-0.02)

Under 0.5 32.47% ▲ (+0.01)

Over 1.5 33.62% ▼ (-0.07)

Under 1.5 66.38% ▲ (+0.07)

Over 2.5 12.65% ▼ (-0.05)

Under 2.5 87.35% ▲ (+0.05)

Over 3.5 3.88% ▼ (-0.04)

Under 3.5 96.12% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Vasco da Gama 40.42%

Draw 26.57%

Fluminense 32.99%

Vasco da Gama

1-0 @ 9.82% ▲ (+0.02)

2-1 @ 8.75% ▼ (-0.01)

2-0 @ 6.67% ▲ (+0.01)

3-1 @ 3.97%

3-0 @ 3.05%

3-2 @ 2.6%

Other @ 5.56% ▼ (-0.03)

Total : 40.42%

Draw

1-1 @ 12.5% ▲ (+0.03)

0-0 @ 7.35% ▲ (+0.01)

2-2 @ 5.49% ▼ (-0.01)

3-3 @ 1.12% ▼ (-0.01)

Other @ 0.11% ▼ (-0.01)

Total : 26.57%

Fluminense

0-1 @ 8.69% ▲ (+0.03)

1-2 @ 7.64% ▼ (-0.02)

0-2 @ 5.24% ▲ (+0.01)

1-3 @ 3.12%

2-3 @ 2.37%

0-3 @ 2.16% ▼ (-0.01)

Other @ 3.77% ▼ (-0.03)

Total : 32.99%

Head to Head

Dec 14, 2025 11.30pm

1

0

HT : 1 0

ET

Samuel Xavier 10'
Paulo Henrique 36'
Luciano Acosta 44'
Nonato 45'+1'
Kevin Serna 68'
Agustin Canobbio 78'

Andres Gomez 32'
Carlos Cuesta 75'
Paulo Henrique 89'

Dec 11, 2025 11.00pm

2

1

HT : 0 1

FT

Leo Jardim 17'
Rayan 50'
Pablo Vegetti 90'+4'
Pablo Vegetti 90'+6'

Kevin Serna 22'

Oct 20, 2025 11.30pm

2

0

HT : 0 0

FT

May 24, 2025 10.30pm

2

1

HT : 1 1

FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Juan Pablo Freytes 24'
Everaldo Stum 29'
Fabio 29'
Pablo Vegetti 42'
Guga 87'
Guga 88'

Joao Victor 25'
Mateus Carvalho 49'
Luiz Gustavo Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos 54'
Hugo Moura 69'

Aug 11, 2024 1.30am

2

0

HT : 2 0

FT Estadio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Pablo Vegetti 23'
Pablo Vegetti 23'
Victor Luis 40'
Victor Luis 40'
Victor Luis 65'
Victor Luis 65'
Pablo Vegetti 74'
Pablo Vegetti 74'
Rayan 83'
Rayan 83'

Ganso 42'
Ganso 42'
Mano Menezes 45'+2'
Mano Menezes 45'+2'
Alexsander 56'
Alexsander 56'
Jhon Arias 79'
Jhon Arias 79'

Apr 20, 2024 8.00pm

2

1

HT : 1 0

FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Felipe Melo 7'
Ganso 10'
Ganso 27'
Martinelli 53'
Andre 66'
Vinicius Lima 89'

Pablo Galdames 27'
Matheus Carvalho 27'
Pablo Vegetti 55'
Pablo Vegetti 66'
Hugo Moura 68'
Ze Gabriel 77'

Form Data

Cruzeiro 3 - 3 Vasco

Vasco 2 - 1 Palmeiras

Santos 2 - 1 Vasco

Vasco 0 - 1 Bahia

Vasco 1 - 1 Chapecoense

Mirassol 2 - 1 Vasco

Fluminense 3 - 2 Athletico PR

Remo 0 - 2 Fluminense

Palmeiras 2 - 1 Fluminense

Fluminense 1 - 0 Botafogo

Bahia 1 - 1 Fluminense

Fluminense 2 - 1 Gremio