Brasileiro Gameweek 7
Mar 19, 2026 12.30am
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Vasco da Gama

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2026 11.30pm
Cruzeiro 3 - 3 Vasco
Goals scored
8
Top scorer
Cauan Barros

Fluminense

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2026 7.00pm
Fluminense 3 - 2 Athletico PR
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Luciano Acosta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Fluminense has a probability of 33.01% and a draw has a probability of 26.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Fluminense win is 0-1 (8.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.47%).

Result

Vasco da Gama 40.42% (+0.18)
Draw 26.57% (+0.04)
Fluminense 33.01% (-0.22)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.51% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.17% (-0.32)
Under 1.5 25.83% (+0.32)
Over 2.5 49.83% (-0.36)
Under 2.5 50.17% (+0.36)
Over 3.5 28.19% (-0.20)
Under 3.5 71.81% (+0.21)
Over 4.5 15.59% (-0.06)
Under 4.5 84.41% (+0.05)

First Half Winner

Vasco da Gama 28.36% (-0.20)
Draw 44.73% (-0.06)
Fluminense 26.91% (+0.25)

Team To Score First

Vasco da Gama 45.91% (-0.58)
No Goal 7.34% (+0.18)
Fluminense 46.75% (+0.40)

Corners

Over 8 57.73% (+1.01)
Equal 8 11.22% (+0.09)
Under 8 31.05% (-1.09)
Over 9 46.3% (+0.84)
Equal 9 11.42% (+0.17)
Under 9 42.27% (-1.01)
Over 10.5 35.6% (+0.63)
Under 10.5 64.4% (-0.62)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 1.5 39.74% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 60.26% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 16.45% (+0.10)
Under 2.5 83.55% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 5.7% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 94.3% (-0.10)

Fluminense Goals

Over 0.5 67.54% (-0.49)
Under 0.5 32.46% (+0.50)
Over 1.5 33.68% (-0.54)
Under 1.5 66.32% (+0.53)
Over 2.5 12.7% (-0.22)
Under 2.5 87.3% (+0.21)
Over 3.5 3.91% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 96.09% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Vasco da Gama 40.42%
Draw 26.56%
Fluminense 32.99%
Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 9.8% (-0.02)
2-1 @ 8.76% (-0.09)
2-0 @ 6.66% (+0.09)
3-1 @ 3.97% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.05% (+0.09)
3-2 @ 2.6%
Other @ 5.58% (+0.12)
Total : 40.42%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.47% (+0.03)
0-0 @ 7.34% (+0.18)
2-2 @ 5.5% (-0.09)
3-3 @ 1.13% (-0.08)
Other @ 0.12% (-0.03)
Total : 26.56%
Fluminense
0-1 @ 8.66% (+0.13)
1-2 @ 7.65% (-0.17)
0-2 @ 5.23% (-0.06)
1-3 @ 3.12% (-0.05)
2-3 @ 2.37% (-0.09)
0-3 @ 2.17%
Other @ 3.79% (+0.02)
Total : 32.99%

Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
Dec 14, 2025 11.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
ET
  • Samuel Xavier 10' yellowcard
  • Paulo Henrique 36' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 44' yellowcard
  • Nonato 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Kevin Serna 68' yellowcard
  • Agustin Canobbio 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Andres Gomez 32'
  • yellowcard Carlos Cuesta 75'
  • yellowcard Paulo Henrique 89'
Copa do Brasil
Dec 11, 2025 11.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Leo Jardim 17' yellowcard
  • Rayan 50' goal
  • Pablo Vegetti 90'+4' goal
  • Pablo Vegetti 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Kevin Serna 22'
Brasileiro
Oct 20, 2025 11.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 10
May 24, 2025 10.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Juan Pablo Freytes 24' yellowcard
  • Everaldo Stum 29' yellowcard
  • Fabio 29' yellowcard
  • Pablo Vegetti 42' goal
  • Guga 87' goal
  • Guga 88' yellowcard
  • goal Joao Victor 25'
  • yellowcard Mateus Carvalho 49'
  • yellowcard Luiz Gustavo Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos 54'
  • yellowcard Hugo Moura 69'
Brasileiro Gameweek 22
Aug 11, 2024 1.30am
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
  • Pablo Vegetti 23' goal
  • Pablo Vegetti 23' goal
  • Victor Luis 40' yellowcard
  • Victor Luis 40' yellowcard
  • Victor Luis 65' goal
  • Victor Luis 65' goal
  • Pablo Vegetti 74' yellowcard
  • Pablo Vegetti 74' yellowcard
  • Rayan 83' yellowcard
  • Rayan 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ganso 42'
  • yellowcard Ganso 42'
  • yellowcard Mano Menezes 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Mano Menezes 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Alexsander 56'
  • yellowcard Alexsander 56'
  • yellowcard Jhon Arias 79'
  • yellowcard Jhon Arias 79'
Brasileiro Gameweek 3
Apr 20, 2024 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Felipe Melo 7' yellowcard
  • Ganso 10' goal
  • Ganso 27' yellowcard
  • Martinelli 53' goal
  • Andre 66' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Lima 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Pablo Galdames 27'
  • yellowcard Matheus Carvalho 27'
  • goal Pablo Vegetti 55'
  • yellowcard Pablo Vegetti 66'
  • yellowcard Hugo Moura 68'
  • yellowcard Ze Gabriel 77'