Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 49.14%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 24.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.69%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.18%) , while for a Universidad Catolica win it was 0-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.