Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 47.33%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 26.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (7.54%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.