Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cienciano win with a probability of 49.52%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 25.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cienciano win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (6.85%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.