Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 38.88%. A win for Cienciano had a probability of 38.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.25%) and 0-2 (4.89%). The likeliest Cienciano win was 2-1 (8.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.