Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 69.23%. A draw had a probability of 20.39% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 10.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.17%) and 2-1 (10.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%) , while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (4.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.