Brasileiro Gameweek 14
May 3, 2026 8.00pm
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

All competitions
Last game
Apr 27, 2026 12.30am
Atletico Mineiro 0 - 4 Flamengo
Goals scored
24
Top scorer
Pedro

Vasco da Gama

All competitions
Last game
Apr 26, 2026 8.00pm
Corinthians 1 - 0 Vasco
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Cauan Barros

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Flamengo win with a probability of 68.73%. A draw has a probability of 20.49% and a win for Vasco da Gama has a probability of 10.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (13.87%) and 2-1 (10.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.13%) , while for a Vasco da Gama win it is 0-1 (4.36%).

Result

Flamengo 68.73% (+0.08)
Draw 20.49% (-0.05)
Vasco da Gama 10.78% (-0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

42.38% (-0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.59% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 27.41% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 48.14% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 51.86% (+0.07)
Over 3.5 26.18% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 73.82% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 16.77% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 83.23% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Flamengo 49.5%
Draw 37%
Vasco da Gama 13.5%

Team To Score First

Flamengo 69.49% (-0.02)
No Goal 7.83% (+0.04)
Vasco da Gama 22.68% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 57.77% (-0.02)
Equal 8 11.86%
Under 8 30.37% (+0.02)
Over 9 45.68% (-0.01)
Equal 9 12.1%
Under 9 42.23% (+0.02)
Over 10.5 34.4% (-0.01)
Under 10.5 65.6% (+0.01)

Flamengo Goals

Over 1.5 57.77% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 42.23% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 29.89% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 70.11% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 12.92% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 87.08% (-0.02)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5 41.55% (-0.11)
Under 0.5 58.45% (+0.11)
Over 1.5 12.17% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 87.83% (+0.07)
Over 2.5 2.61% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 97.39% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 0.48%
Under 3.5 99.52%

Score analysis

Flamengo 68.74%
Draw 20.5%
Vasco da Gama 10.77%
Flamengo
1-0 @ 15.23% (+0.05)
2-0 @ 13.87% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 10.2% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 8.62% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 5.69%
3-2 @ 2.22% (+0.02)
Other @ 12.91% (+0.01)
Total : 68.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.13% (-0.03)
0-0 @ 7.83% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 3.09% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 20.5%
Vasco da Gama
0-1 @ 4.36% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 2.81% (-0.03)
0-2 @ 1.44% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.47%
Total : 10.77%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Sep 21, 2025 9.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 5
Apr 19, 2025 10.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
  • Paulo Henrique 44' yellowcard
  • Pablo Vegetti 54' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Leo Ortiz 81'
Brasileiro Gameweek 26
Sep 15, 2024 10.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Gerson 72' goal
  • yellowcard Lucas Piton 45'
  • goal Philippe Coutinho 87'
Brasileiro Gameweek 7
Jun 2, 2024 8.00pm
1
6
HT : 1 3
FT Estadio Nivaldo Pereira
  • Pablo Vegetti 9' goal
  • Joao Victor 45'+4' redcard
  • Pablo Vegetti 59' yellowcard
  • Ze Gabriel 71' yellowcard
  • goal Everton 28'
  • goal Pedro 33'
  • goal David Luiz 43'
  • goal Giorgian De Arrascaeta 51'
  • goal Bruno Henrique 73'
  • goal Gabriel Barbosa 89'
Brasileiro Gameweek 28
Oct 22, 2023 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Fabricio Bruno 23' yellowcard
  • Gerson 76' goal
  • yellowcard Paulo Henrique 33'
  • yellowcard Paulinho 90'+5'
Brasileiro Gameweek 9
Jun 6, 2023 12.00am
1
4
HT : 0 8
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Jair 58' goal
  • Jair 58' goal
  • goal Erick Pulgar 14'
  • goal Erick Pulgar 14'
  • goal Gerson 16'
  • goal Gerson 16'
  • goal Ayrton Lucas 42'
  • goal Pedro 42'
  • goal Ayrton Lucas 45'+2'
  • goal Ayrton Lucas 45'+2'