Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 43.13%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (9.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.