Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 30.22% and a draw had a probability of 29.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (9.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.