Brasileiro Gameweek 12
Apr 19, 2026 11.30pm
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Flamengo vs Bahia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

All competitions
Last game
Apr 12, 2026 10.00pm
Fluminense 1 - 2 Flamengo
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Pedro

Bahia

All competitions
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 10.30pm
Mirassol 1 - 2 Bahia
Goals scored
15
Top scorer
Luciano Juba

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Flamengo win with a probability of 65.06%. A draw has a probability of 20.48% and a win for Bahia has a probability of 14.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (10.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.89%) , while for a Bahia win it is 0-1 (4.78%).

Result

Flamengo 65.06% (+1.20)
Draw 20.48% (-0.81)
Bahia 14.46% (-0.33)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.06% (+2.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.46% (+0.81)
Under 1.5 22.54% (-0.82)
Over 2.5 53.76% (+0.86)
Under 2.5 46.24% (-0.86)
Over 3.5 31.62% (+1.47)
Under 3.5 68.35% (-1.50)
Over 4.5 19.65% (+0.98)
Under 4.5 80.35% (-0.99)

First Half Winner

Flamengo 47.8% (+4.24)
Draw 38.45% (-0.16)
Bahia 13.75% (-4.09)

Team To Score First

Flamengo 69.37% (+4.38)
No Goal 5.67% (-0.46)
Bahia 24.96% (-3.92)

Corners

Over 8 62.51% (-0.04)
Equal 8 11.19% (+0.10)
Under 8 26.3% (-0.08)
Over 9 50.65% (-0.15)
Equal 9 11.86% (+0.11)
Under 9 37.49% (+0.04)
Over 10.5 39.18% (-0.23)
Under 10.5 60.83% (+0.24)

Flamengo Goals

Over 1.5 59.12% (+1.41)
Under 1.5 40.88% (-1.41)
Over 2.5 31.39% (+1.15)
Under 2.5 68.61% (-1.15)
Over 3.5 13.7% (+0.59)
Under 3.5 86.3% (-0.60)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5 49.53% (+0.08)
Under 0.5 50.47% (-0.08)
Over 1.5 17.67% (-0.12)
Under 1.5 82.33% (+0.13)
Over 2.5 4.31% (-0.31)
Under 2.5 95.69% (+0.30)
Over 3.5 1% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 99% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Flamengo 65.07%
Draw 20.49%
Bahia 14.45%
Flamengo
1-0 @ 12.1% (-0.25)
2-0 @ 11.64% (+0.07)
2-1 @ 10.62% (+0.05)
3-0 @ 7.38% (-0.04)
3-1 @ 6.57% (+0.38)
3-2 @ 3.07% (+0.33)
Other @ 13.69% (+0.67)
Total : 65.07%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.89% (-0.19)
0-0 @ 5.67% (-0.46)
2-2 @ 4.25% (+0.05)
Other @ 0.01% (-0.08)
Total : 20.49%
Bahia
0-1 @ 4.78% (-0.05)
1-2 @ 3.88% (-0.29)
0-2 @ 2.16% (+0.09)
2-3 @ 1.22% (+0.11)
1-3 @ 1.16% (+0.06)
Other @ 0.99% (+0.07)
Total : 14.45%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Oct 5, 2025 10.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 8
May 11, 2025 1.00am
1
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Giorgian De Arrascaeta 8' goal
  • Giorgian De Arrascaeta 8' goal
  • Gerson 87' redcard
  • Gerson 87' redcard
  • yellowcard Santiago Ramos Mingo 90'+4'
  • yellowcard Santiago Ramos Mingo 90'+4'
Brasileiro Gameweek 29
Oct 5, 2024 11.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Everaldo Stum 59' yellowcard
  • Cicinho 69' yellowcard
  • Caio Alexandre 72' yellowcard
  • Kanu 87' yellowcard
  • Ademir 90'+8' yellowcard
  • Santiago Arias 90'+10' redcard
  • goal Ayrton Lucas 34'
  • yellowcard Giorgian De Arrascaeta 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Bruno Henrique 66'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Pereira 72'
  • yellowcard Allan Rodrigues de Souza 89'
  • goal Carlos Alcaraz 90'+11'
Copa do Brasil
Sep 13, 2024 1.45am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Giorgian De Arrascaeta 54' goal
  • Giorgian De Arrascaeta 54' goal
  • Bruno Henrique 88' yellowcard
  • Bruno Henrique 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gabriel Xavier 66'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Xavier 66'
  • yellowcard Iago 87'
  • yellowcard Iago 87'
  • yellowcard Carlos de Pena 88'
Copa do Brasil
Aug 29, 2024 1.30am
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • goal Bruno Henrique 50'
  • goal Bruno Henrique 50'
  • yellowcard Evertton Gustavo Fernandes Araujo 86'
  • yellowcard Santiago Arias 86'
Brasileiro Gameweek 10
Jun 21, 2024 12.00am
2
1
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Gerson 23' goal
  • Gerson 23' goal
  • Leo Ortiz 34' yellowcard
  • Leo Ortiz 34' yellowcard
  • David Luiz 90'+4' goal
  • David Luiz 90'+4' goal
  • goal Everaldo Stum 35'
  • goal Everaldo Stum 35'
  • yellowcard Jean Lucas 69'
  • yellowcard Jean Lucas 69'