Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 55.23%. A draw had a probability of 24.53% and a win for Barracas Central had a probability of 20.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%) , while for a Barracas Central win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.