Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Audax Italiano had a probability of 30.84% and a draw had a probability of 25.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest Audax Italiano win was 1-0 (8.9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.