Brasileiro Gameweek 23
Atletico Mineiro
Aug 16, 2026 8.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Arena MRV
Gremio
  • Vitor Hugo  19' goal
  • Angelo Preciado 42' yellowcard
  • Mamady Cissé  45'+2' yellowcard
  • Renan Lodi 57' yellowcard
  • Tomás Cuello 62' goal
  • Tomás Cuello 66' goal
  • yellowcard Cristian Pavón 39'
  • yellowcard Walter Kannemann  61'
  • yellowcard Pedro Gabriel 69'

Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions
Last game
Aug 8, 2026 10.30pm
Remo 2 - 2 Atletico Mineiro
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Victor Hugo

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
Aug 8, 2026 8.00pm
Gremio 2 - 1 Sao Paulo
Goals scored
24
Top scorer
Carlos Vinicius

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 57.29%. A draw had a probability of 26.08% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 16.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.89%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%) , while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result

Atletico Mineiro 57.29% ▼ (-0.35)
Draw 26.08% ▲ (+0.09)
Gremio 16.63% ▲ (+0.22)

Both Teams to Score: 

42.64% ▲ (+0.24)

Goals

Over 1.5 66.33% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 1.5 33.67% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 2.5 40.22% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 2.5 59.78% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 3.5 19.95% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 3.5 80.02% ▼ (-0.14)
Over 4.5 11.09% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 4.5 88.91% ▼ (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Atletico Mineiro 43.08% ▼ (-0.10)
Draw 42.26% ▲ (+0.08)
Gremio 14.66% ▲ (+0.01)

Team To Score First

Atletico Mineiro 62.29% ▲ (+0.02)
No Goal 10.61% ▼ (-0.06)
Gremio 27.1% ▲ (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 60.91% ▼ (-0.09)
Equal 8 11.87% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 8 27.23% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 9 48.45% ▼ (-0.09)
Equal 9 12.46% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 9 39.09% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 10.5 36.59% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 10.5 63.41% ▲ (+0.09)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 1.5 45.73% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 1.5 54.27% ▲ (+0.14)
Over 2.5 20.15% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 2.5 79.85% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 7.16% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 92.84% ▲ (+0.05)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5 48.43% ▲ (+0.34)
Under 0.5 51.57% ▼ (-0.34)
Over 1.5 15.43% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 1.5 84.57% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 2.5 3.35% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 2.5 96.65% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 3.5 0.65% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 99.35% ▼ (-0.03)

Score analysis

Atletico Mineiro 57.29%
Draw 26.09%
Gremio 16.62%
Atletico Mineiro
1-0 @ 16.05% ▼ (-0.13)
2-0 @ 11.89% ▼ (-0.12)
2-1 @ 9.61%
3-0 @ 5.87% ▼ (-0.06)
3-1 @ 4.61% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.11%
Other @ 7.15% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 57.29%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.77% ▲ (+0.05)
0-0 @ 10.61% ▼ (-0.06)
2-2 @ 3.3% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 26.09%
Gremio
0-1 @ 7.01% ▲ (+0.03)
1-2 @ 4.22% ▲ (+0.07)
0-2 @ 2.45% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.64% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 16.62%

Head to Head

Brasileiro Gameweek 4
Gremio
Feb 26, 2026 12.30am
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena do Grêmio
Atletico Mineiro
  • Erick Noriega 51' goal
  • Marlon 66' goal
  • Dodi 69' yellowcard
  • Roger 80' yellowcard
  • 80' yellowcard
  • João Pedro 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mamady Cissé 46'
  • goal Victor Hugo 56'
  • yellowcard Reinier 68'
  • yellowcard Dudu 69'
  • yellowcard Alan Minda 80'
  • yellowcard Mateo Cassierra 89'
  • yellowcard Mateo Cassierra 90'
Brasileiro
Atletico Mineiro
Aug 17, 2025 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Gremio
Brasileiro Gameweek 1
Gremio
Mar 29, 2025 9.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
Atletico Mineiro
  • Matias Arezo 33' goal
  • Wagner Leonardo 39' yellowcard
  • Edenilson 45' goal
  • Jemerson 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Cristian Pavon 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Cristian Olivera 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Rony 75'
Brasileiro Gameweek 6
Atletico Mineiro
Oct 9, 2024 11.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Arena MRV
Gremio
  • Hulk 11' goal
  • Lyanco 18' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Milito 19' yellowcard
  • Deyverson 39' goal
  • Deyverson 54' yellowcard
  • Fausto Vera 55' yellowcard
  • Hulk 90' yellowcard
  • goal Alexander Aravena 24'
  • yellowcard Jemerson 33'
  • yellowcard Agustin Marchesin 35'
  • yellowcard Reinaldo 54'
Brasileiro Gameweek 25
Gremio
Sep 1, 2024 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
Atletico Mineiro
  • Gustavo Martins 20' redcard
  • Martin Braithwaite 32' goal
  • Franco Cristaldo 42' goal
  • Walter Kannemann 71' yellowcard
  • Agustin Marchesin 90'+9' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Bernard 29'
  • yellowcard Deyverson 40'
  • goal Gustavo Scarpa 73'
  • yellowcard Brahian Palacios 78'
  • goal Brahian Palacios 90'+3'
  • goal Eduardo Vargas 90'+6'
Brasileiro Gameweek 35
Atletico Mineiro
Nov 26, 2023 7.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Raimundo Sampaio
Gremio
  • Guilherme Arana 25' goal
  • Edenilson 36' yellowcard
  • Mauricio Lemos 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Matias Zaracho 50' goal
  • Hulk 58' goal
  • yellowcard Luis Suarez 50'
  • yellowcard Fabio Da Silva 84'

Form Data

Bragantino 0 - 1 Atletico Mineiro
Remo 2 - 2 Atletico Mineiro
Juventude 0 - 1 Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro 0 - 0 Juventude
Atletico Mineiro 0 - 0 Bragantino
Palmeiras 1 - 2 Atletico Mineiro
Gremio 2 - 1 Sao Paulo
Gremio 1 - 0 Mirassol
Mirassol 1 - 1 Gremio
Gremio 0 - 1 Bolivar
Botafogo 0 - 0 Gremio
Gremio 1 - 1 Fluminense