Brasileiro
Bahia
May 17, 2026 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
Gremio
  • Mateo Sanabria 60' yellowcard
  • Iago 60' yellowcard
  • Everaldo 67' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo Nestor 67' yellowcard
  • Mateo Sanabria 72' goal
  • Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreira 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gabriel Mec 46'
  • yellowcard Vitor Ramon Ribeiro de Oliveira 59'
  • yellowcard Martin Braithwaite 60'
  • yellowcard 60'
  • yellowcard Francis Amuzu 60'
  • yellowcard Vitor Ramon Ribeiro de Oliveira 60'
  • goal Viery 62'
  • yellowcard Bernardo Schons Zortea 78'

Bahia vs Gremio - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahia

All competitions
Last game
May 10, 2026 1.00am
Bahia 1 - 2 Cruzeiro
Goals scored
21
Top scorer
Luciano Juba

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
May 10, 2026 11.30pm
Gremio 0 - 1 Flamengo
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Carlos Vinicius

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 49.75%. A draw had a probability of 25.72% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 24.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%) , while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.

Result

Bahia 49.75% ▲ (+0.14)
Draw 25.72% ▼ (-0.02)
Gremio 24.53% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.18% ▲ (+0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.21% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 1.5 26.79% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 48.33% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 2.5 51.67% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 3.5 25.82% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 3.5 74.18% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 4.5 14.01% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 4.5 85.99% ▼ (-0.08)

First Half Winner

Bahia 41.47% ▲ (+1.13)
Draw 41.63% ▼ (-0.36)
Gremio 16.9% ▼ (-0.78)

Team To Score First

Bahia 60.62% ▲ (+1.73)
No Goal 7.48% ▼ (-0.01)
Gremio 31.9% ▼ (-1.72)

Corners

Over 8 58.89% ▲ (+5.19)
Equal 8 11.97% ▼ (-0.42)
Under 8 29.14% ▼ (-4.79)
Over 9 46.54% ▲ (+5.07)
Equal 9 12.34% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 9 41.11% ▼ (-5.19)
Over 10.5 34.96% ▲ (+4.52)
Under 10.5 65.04% ▼ (-4.52)

Bahia Goals

Over 1.5 45.38% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 1.5 54.62% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 2.5 19.94% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 2.5 80.06% ▼ (-0.21)
Over 3.5 7.03% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 3.5 92.97% ▼ (-0.19)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5 59.95% ▼ (-0.37)
Under 0.5 40.05% ▲ (+0.37)
Over 1.5 25.86% ▼ (-0.20)
Under 1.5 74.14% ▲ (+0.21)
Over 2.5 7.93% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 92.07% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 3.5 1.9% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 98.1% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Bahia 49.75%
Draw 25.71%
Gremio 24.52%
Bahia
1-0 @ 11.98% ▲ (+0.02)
2-1 @ 9.85% ▼ (-0.25)
2-0 @ 8.9% ▲ (+0.07)
3-0 @ 4.7% ▲ (+0.09)
3-1 @ 4.69% ▲ (+0.06)
3-2 @ 2.66% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 6.97% ▲ (+0.21)
Total : 49.75%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.24% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 7.48% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.07% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 0.06% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 25.71%
Gremio
0-1 @ 7.31%
1-2 @ 6.45% ▼ (-0.09)
0-2 @ 3.75% ▼ (-0.05)
1-3 @ 2.04% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.62%
0-3 @ 1.51% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 1.84%
Total : 24.52%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Bahia
Oct 20, 2025 12.30am
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Gremio
Brasileiro Gameweek 10
Gremio
May 25, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Arena do Gremio
Bahia
  • Franco Cristaldo 26' yellowcard
  • Francis Amuzu 28' yellowcard
  • Martin Braithwaite 61' goal
  • Cristian Pavon 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Alexander Aravena 90'+10' yellowcard
  • yellowcard David Duarte 35'
  • yellowcard Santiago Ramos Mingo 39'
  • yellowcard Everton Macedo Moraes 59'
  • yellowcard Everton Ribeiro 59'
  • yellowcard Caio Alexandre 90'+13'
Brasileiro Gameweek 23
Gremio
Aug 17, 2024 8.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Arena do Gremio
Bahia
  • Yeferson Soteldo 67' yellowcard
  • Yeferson Soteldo 68' yellowcard
  • Diego Costa 72' yellowcard
  • Nathan 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Thaciano 45'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Xavier 65'
  • goal Thaciano 76'
Brasileiro Gameweek 4
Bahia
Apr 28, 2024 1.00am
1
0
HT : 2 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
Gremio
  • Everaldo Stum 17' goal
  • Everaldo Stum 17' goal
  • Rogerio Mucke Ceni 46' yellowcard
  • Rogerio Ceni 46' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 47' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 47' yellowcard
  • Everton Ribeiro 56' yellowcard
  • Everton Ribeiro 56' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Walter Kannemann 45'
  • yellowcard Walter Kannemann 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Renato Portaluppi 65'
  • yellowcard Douglas Moreira 67'
  • yellowcard Douglas Moreira 67'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Nunes 78'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Nunes 78'
  • redcard Diego Costa 90'+2'
  • redcard Diego Costa 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Ely 90'+6'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Ely 90'+6'
  • redcard Nathan Ribeiro 90'+8'
Brasileiro Gameweek 32
Gremio
Nov 4, 2023 10.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Arena do Gremio
Bahia
  • Walter Kannemann 22' yellowcard
  • Luis Suarez 70' goal
  • Nata 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard David Duarte 31'
  • yellowcard Thaciano 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Cicinho 64'
  • yellowcard Cauly Oliveira Souza 81'
Copa do Brasil
Gremio
Jul 13, 2023 12.00am
1
1
HT : 0 2
ET Arena do Gremio
Bahia
  • Mathias Villasanti 72' goal
  • Mathias Villasanti 72' goal
  • goal Everaldo Stum 45'+5'
  • goal Everaldo Stum 45'+5'

Form Data

Remo 2 - 1 Bahia
Bahia 1 - 2 Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Bahia
Bahia 2 - 2 Santos
Bahia 1 - 3 Remo
Flamengo 2 - 0 Bahia
Confianca 0 - 3 Gremio
Gremio 0 - 1 Flamengo
Deportivo Riestra 0 - 3 Gremio
Athletico PR 0 - 0 Gremio
Palestino 0 - 0 Gremio
Gremio 1 - 0 Coritiba