Brasileiro Gameweek 14
May 3, 2026 8.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo
  • Artur 17' goal
  • Cédric Soares 50' yellowcard
  • Lucas Moura  63' yellowcard
  • Enzo Díaz 71' yellowcard
  • Luan 71' yellowcard
  • Ferreirinha 71' yellowcard
  • Ferreirinha 73' goal
  • Lucas Rodrigues Moura, Marcelinho↓ 85' yellowcard
  • 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mateo Sanabria 56'
  • goal Luciano Juba 62'
  • yellowcard Ademir 82'
  • yellowcard Michel Araújo 82'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Nestor 82'
  • yellowcard Everaldo 82'
  • goal Erick 90'+7'

Sao Paulo vs Bahia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Paulo

All competitions
Last game
Apr 26, 2026 1.00am
Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Mirassol
Goals scored
19
Top scorer
Luciano

Bahia

All competitions
Last game
Apr 25, 2026 10.30pm
Bahia 2 - 2 Santos
Goals scored
19
Top scorer
Luciano Juba

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 54.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.02% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 21.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.61%) and 2-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%) , while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result

Sao Paulo 54.88% (-0.27)
Draw 24.02% (+0.17)
Bahia 21.03% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.79% (-0.50)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.9% (-0.54)
Under 1.5 25.1% (+0.55)
Over 2.5 51.24% (-0.67)
Under 2.5 48.76% (+0.67)
Over 3.5 28.62% (-0.56)
Under 3.5 71.38% (+0.57)
Over 4.5 16.42% (-0.40)
Under 4.5 83.58% (+0.40)

First Half Winner

Sao Paulo 39.76%
Draw 42.61%
Bahia 17.63%

Team To Score First

Sao Paulo 60.52% (-0.13)
No Goal 6.7% (+0.20)
Bahia 32.78% (-0.07)

Corners

Over 8 65.62%
Equal 8 11.06%
Under 8 23.32%
Over 9 53.53%
Equal 9 12.08%
Under 9 34.38%
Over 10.5 41.55%
Under 10.5 58.45%

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 1.5 50.41% (-0.56)
Under 1.5 49.59% (+0.56)
Over 2.5 23.84% (-0.45)
Under 2.5 76.16% (+0.44)
Over 3.5 9.17% (-0.25)
Under 3.5 90.83% (+0.25)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5 57.27% (-0.16)
Under 0.5 42.73% (+0.16)
Over 1.5 23.72% (-0.23)
Under 1.5 76.28% (+0.22)
Over 2.5 7.42% (-0.10)
Under 2.5 92.58% (+0.10)
Over 3.5 1.9% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 98.1% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Sao Paulo 54.88%
Draw 24.02%
Bahia 21.03%
Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 12.13% (+0.17)
2-1 @ 10.61% (-0.06)
2-0 @ 9.42% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 5.46% (-0.08)
3-0 @ 5.36% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 2.85% (-0.07)
Other @ 9.05% (-0.25)
Total : 54.88%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.28% (+0.06)
0-0 @ 6.7% (+0.20)
2-2 @ 4.92% (-0.07)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 24.02%
Bahia
0-1 @ 6.2% (+0.13)
1-2 @ 5.58% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 2.95% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 1.82% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.62% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.08% (+0.02)
Other @ 1.78% (-0.05)
Total : 21.03%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Oct 26, 2025 1.30am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 11
May 31, 2025 10.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Willian Jose 53' goal
  • Willian Jose 73' goal
  • Kayky 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luciano 59'
  • goal Luciano 85'
  • yellowcard Rodriguinho 90'+8'
Brasileiro Gameweek 32
Nov 6, 2024 12.30am
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Jean Lucas 51' yellowcard
  • Jean Lucas 51' yellowcard
  • Kanu 61' yellowcard
  • Kanu 61' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 79' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marcos Antonio 35'
  • yellowcard Marcos Antonio 35'
  • goal Luiz Gustavo 40'
  • goal Luiz Gustavo 40'
  • yellowcard Sabino 55'
  • yellowcard Sabino 55'
  • goal Wellington Rato 66'
  • goal Wellington Rato 66'
  • goal Lucas Moura 90'+1'
  • goal Lucas Moura 90'+1'
Brasileiro Gameweek 13
Jun 30, 2024 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
  • Jonathan Calleri 30' goal
  • Ferreira 32' goal
  • Ferreira 34' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Cuberas 34' yellowcard
  • Luciano 65' goal
  • Luciano 65' yellowcard
  • Alisson 86' yellowcard
  • Luiz Gustavo 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kanu 44'
  • goal Gilberto 49'
Brasileiro Gameweek 36
Nov 29, 2023 11.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Yago 54' yellowcard
  • Kanu 87' yellowcard
  • Rafael Ratao 90' yellowcard
  • Lucas Mugni 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lucas Beraldo 81'
  • yellowcard Talles Costa 90'+1'
  • goal Caio Paulista 90'+7'
  • yellowcard Caio Paulista 90'+8'
Brasileiro Gameweek 17
Jul 30, 2023 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
  • yellowcard Matheus Bahia 18'
  • yellowcard Gilberto 25'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Xavier 31'
  • yellowcard Rafael Ratao 76'