Brasileiro Gameweek 14
May 3, 2026 8.00pm
Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Sao Paulo vs Bahia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Paulo

All competitions
Last game
Apr 26, 2026 1.00am
Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Mirassol
Goals scored
17
Top scorer
Luciano

Bahia

All competitions
Last game
Apr 25, 2026 10.30pm
Bahia 2 - 2 Santos
Goals scored
17
Top scorer
Luciano Juba

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 55.2%. A draw has a probability of 23.84% and a win for Bahia has a probability of 20.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (10.66%) and 2-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.23%) , while for a Bahia win it is 0-1 (6.1%).

Result

Sao Paulo 55.2% (-0.83)
Draw 23.84% (+0.11)
Bahia 20.96% (+0.74)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.15% (+0.68)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.35% (+0.23)
Under 1.5 24.65% (-0.24)
Over 2.5 51.78% (+0.38)
Under 2.5 48.22% (-0.38)
Over 3.5 29.06% (+0.40)
Under 3.5 70.94% (-0.41)
Over 4.5 16.73% (+0.22)
Under 4.5 83.27% (-0.22)

First Half Winner

Sao Paulo 39.77%
Draw 42.62%
Bahia 17.61%

Team To Score First

Sao Paulo 60.7% (+0.07)
No Goal 6.53% (-0.09)
Bahia 32.77% (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 65.7%
Equal 8 11.06%
Under 8 23.24%
Over 9 53.61%
Equal 9 12.09%
Under 9 34.3%
Over 10.5 41.62%
Under 10.5 58.38%

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 1.5 50.9% (-0.39)
Under 1.5 49.1% (+0.39)
Over 2.5 24.23% (-0.33)
Under 2.5 75.77% (+0.32)
Over 3.5 9.38% (-0.20)
Under 3.5 90.62% (+0.21)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5 57.35% (+0.90)
Under 0.5 42.65% (-0.90)
Over 1.5 23.83% (+0.92)
Under 1.5 76.17% (-0.93)
Over 2.5 7.46% (+0.51)
Under 2.5 92.54% (-0.51)
Over 3.5 1.91% (+0.20)
Under 3.5 98.09% (-0.21)

Score analysis

Sao Paulo 55.2%
Draw 23.83%
Bahia 20.96%
Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 12.01% (-0.19)
2-1 @ 10.66% (-0.03)
2-0 @ 9.42% (-0.25)
3-1 @ 5.53% (-0.05)
3-0 @ 5.41% (-0.19)
3-2 @ 2.9% (+0.07)
Other @ 9.27% (-0.21)
Total : 55.2%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.23% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 6.53% (-0.09)
2-2 @ 4.95% (+0.12)
3-3 @ 1.01%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 23.83%
Bahia
0-1 @ 6.1% (+0.05)
1-2 @ 5.59% (+0.14)
0-2 @ 2.93% (+0.10)
1-3 @ 1.83% (+0.12)
2-3 @ 1.64% (+0.10)
0-3 @ 1.07% (+0.06)
Other @ 1.8% (+0.20)
Total : 20.96%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Oct 26, 2025 1.30am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 11
May 31, 2025 10.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Willian Jose 53' goal
  • Willian Jose 73' goal
  • Kayky 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luciano 59'
  • goal Luciano 85'
  • yellowcard Rodriguinho 90'+8'
Brasileiro Gameweek 32
Nov 6, 2024 12.30am
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Jean Lucas 51' yellowcard
  • Jean Lucas 51' yellowcard
  • Kanu 61' yellowcard
  • Kanu 61' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 79' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marcos Antonio 35'
  • yellowcard Marcos Antonio 35'
  • goal Luiz Gustavo 40'
  • goal Luiz Gustavo 40'
  • yellowcard Sabino 55'
  • yellowcard Sabino 55'
  • goal Wellington Rato 66'
  • goal Wellington Rato 66'
  • goal Lucas Moura 90'+1'
  • goal Lucas Moura 90'+1'
Brasileiro Gameweek 13
Jun 30, 2024 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
  • Jonathan Calleri 30' goal
  • Ferreira 32' goal
  • Ferreira 34' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Cuberas 34' yellowcard
  • Luciano 65' goal
  • Luciano 65' yellowcard
  • Alisson 86' yellowcard
  • Luiz Gustavo 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kanu 44'
  • goal Gilberto 49'
Brasileiro Gameweek 36
Nov 29, 2023 11.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Yago 54' yellowcard
  • Kanu 87' yellowcard
  • Rafael Ratao 90' yellowcard
  • Lucas Mugni 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lucas Beraldo 81'
  • yellowcard Talles Costa 90'+1'
  • goal Caio Paulista 90'+7'
  • yellowcard Caio Paulista 90'+8'
Brasileiro Gameweek 17
Jul 30, 2023 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
  • yellowcard Matheus Bahia 18'
  • yellowcard Gilberto 25'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Xavier 31'
  • yellowcard Rafael Ratao 76'