Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 54.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.02% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 21.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.61%) and 2-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%) , while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.