Preview: Sao Paulo vs Bahia - prediction, team news, lineups

For the 14th round of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, São Paulo host Bahia on Sunday at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques in an important clash involving the top six places. The fixture has been moved to Bragança Paulista because of The Weeknd’s concerts at MorumBIS this weekend.

The two sides therefore meet in a direct battle for a place in the G4, with Tricolor currently on 23 points and Tricolor de Aço close behind on 21, meaning the result could significantly shape the upper end of the table.

Match preview

With a 58 per cent win rate, São Paulo continue to grapple with inconsistent form in the Brasileirão since Roger Machado's arrival. The side have slipped from top spot to nine points behind current leaders Palmeiras.

Against Mirassol in the previous round, forward Luciano emerged as the goalscorer to secure victory for the Tricolor. The result left the team on 23 points in fourth place. It was their fourth win in the competition across nine matches under the head coach.

Travelling into the São Paulo countryside will offer the chance to deliver a convincing performance in a favourable atmosphere, despite being the home side. Even with an 83.33 per cent record at home, Roger has continued to face heavy criticism and jeers — even before kick-off — from supporters regarding his stewardship of the club. That environment keeps the pressure on the manager, who is seeking greater consistency in away fixtures.

That was the case last Tuesday, when his side were held to a goalless draw against Millonarios in Group C of the 2026 Sudamericana. With a reserve line-up, the Brazilian team created very few clear-cut chances — just nine shots, only one on target — and remained top of the group on seven points.

The result on Sunday becomes crucial in cementing their position inside the Libertadores qualifying zone, the board's primary objective. As hosts in the competition, São Paulo have collected 15 points out of a possible 18, conceding only three goals at home.

Bahia's persistence helped them avoid defeat in the previous round against Santos at the Arena Fonte Nova. Following two converted penalties, Santos went into the interval with a two-goal advantage.

The Tricolor de Aço sharpened up after the break with a high volume of attacking play. They had 68 per cent possession and registered 11 shots in the second half alone. Luciano Juba and William José scored inside the final 15 minutes to earn the team a point.

The result moved them up to 21 points overall, the product of a campaign featuring six wins, three draws and three defeats. The club's standout statistic this year is their record on opposition territory: 12 points collected from a possible 18 away from Salvador.

Competing only in the Brasileirão and the Copa do Brasil, the Bahia side are attempting to rediscover winning form as they arrive in São Paulo, having gone three matches without a victory. That run includes a 3-1 home defeat to Remo in the first leg of the fifth round of the knockout competition.

Rogério Ceni will face the club where he is the ultimate idol while attempting to end a drought that has frustrated Bahia supporters. The team have not beaten São Paulo away in the Brasileirão since 2013, with five defeats and four draws since then. Playing outside the MorumBIS will offer an opportunity to win again on São Paulo soil against the Soberano.

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form:

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Bahia Brasileiro form:

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Team News

The principal doubt on the São Paulo side is whether Lucas Moura will be included in the squad, having suffered a rib fracture and continuing his recovery. He resumed ball work in training during the week, but his presence in the match has yet to be confirmed.

Roger Machado is expected to continue prioritising the Brasileirão and bring back the regular starters who were rested for the draw in Colombia. At present, Marcos Antônio (rectus femoris injury) and Pablo Maia (facial fracture) remain in the medical department.

Alan Franco served his suspension in the previous Brasileirão round against Mirassol and returns to selection, taking his place as one of the key components of the defensive system. Cauly, although on loan from Bahia, will be available, as his contract permits him to be selected against his parent club.

For Bahia, Rogério Ceni will have almost his entire squad available for the trip into the São Paulo countryside. Only Rua Pablo, in physical transition, and Ronaldo, undergoing shoulder treatment, are listed among the club's injured players.

In the draw against Santos, the manager left midfielder Everton Ribeiro on the bench, opting for Michel Araújo as a starter. A change appears likely, with the final decision to be taken at Saturday's last training session.

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:

Rafael; Lucas Ramon, Alan Franco, Sabino, Wendell; Bobadilla, Danielzinho; Cauly, Luciano, Artur; Jonathan Calleri. Manager: Roger Machado.

Bahia possible starting lineup:

Léo Vieira; Nicolas Acevedo, David Duarte, Ramos Mingo, Luciano Juba; Caio Alexandre, Jean Lucas, Éverton Ribeiro; Kike Olivera, Erick Pulga, Willian José. Manager: Rogério Ceni.

We say: Sao Paulo 2-0 Bahia

Sao Paulo have shown impressive defensive discipline on home soil under Roger Machado, keeping clean sheets in four of their six matches. In addition, they have also prevented Bahia from scoring in five of the last eight home meetings between the sides.

That backdrop points towards a tighter contest in which Sao Paulo’s efficiency and home strength could prove decisive. Historically, Bahia have often struggled in this fixture as visitors, and that trend may again tilt the balance in favour of the Tricolor on Sunday.

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