Brasileiro Gameweek 15
May 10, 2026 1.00am
Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia vs Cruzeiro - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahia

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2026 8.00pm
Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Bahia
Goals scored
19
Top scorer
Luciano Juba

Cruzeiro

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2026 1.00am
Cruzeiro 1 - 3 Atletico Mineiro
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Christian

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bahia win with a probability of 46.81%. A win for Cruzeiro has a probability of 26.95% and a draw has a probability of 26.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.39%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win is 0-1 (7.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.42%).

Result

Bahia 46.81% (+0.06)
Draw 26.24% (-0.07)
Cruzeiro 26.95% (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.74% (+0.02)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.1% (+0.20)
Under 1.5 26.9% (-0.21)
Over 2.5 47.97% (+0.16)
Under 2.5 52.03% (-0.16)
Over 3.5 25.92% (+0.21)
Under 3.5 74.08% (-0.21)
Over 4.5 13.75% (+0.17)
Under 4.5 86.25% (-0.18)

First Half Winner

Bahia 36.69% (+0.02)
Draw 42.05% (+0.03)
Cruzeiro 21.26% (-0.06)

Team To Score First

Bahia 55.22% (+0.04)
No Goal 7.56% (-0.06)
Cruzeiro 37.22% (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 53.85% (+0.21)
Equal 8 11.91% (+0.01)
Under 8 34.24% (-0.22)
Over 9 42.08% (+0.18)
Equal 9 11.77% (+0.02)
Under 9 46.15% (-0.21)
Over 10.5 31.42% (+0.16)
Under 10.5 68.58% (-0.16)

Bahia Goals

Over 1.5 43.41% (+0.19)
Under 1.5 56.59% (-0.19)
Over 2.5 18.2% (+0.15)
Under 2.5 81.8% (-0.15)
Over 3.5 6.08% (+0.13)
Under 3.5 93.92% (-0.13)

Cruzeiro Goals

Over 0.5 62.44% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 37.56% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 27.94% (+0.11)
Under 1.5 72.06% (-0.10)
Over 2.5 9.14% (+0.07)
Under 2.5 90.86% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 2.28% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 97.72% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Bahia 46.81%
Draw 26.25%
Cruzeiro 26.95%
Bahia
1-0 @ 11.53% (-0.11)
2-1 @ 9.74% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 8.39% (+0.04)
3-1 @ 4.52% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.04%
3-2 @ 2.54%
Other @ 6.05% (+0.13)
Total : 46.81%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.42% (-0.05)
0-0 @ 7.56% (-0.06)
2-2 @ 5.22% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.02% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.03%
Total : 26.25%
Cruzeiro
0-1 @ 7.82% (-0.03)
1-2 @ 6.74% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 4.3% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.44% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.86% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.54%
Other @ 2.25% (+0.03)
Total : 26.95%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Sep 16, 2025 12.00am
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 4
Apr 18, 2025 1.30am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Governador Magalhaes Pinto
  • Lucas Romero 45'+7' goal
  • Lucas Romero 45'+7' goal
  • William 53' yellowcard
  • William 53' yellowcard
  • Kaio Jorge 60' yellowcard
  • Kaio Jorge 60' yellowcard
  • Wanderson 64' yellowcard
  • Wanderson 64' yellowcard
  • Kaio Jorge 65' goal
  • Kaio Jorge 65' goal
  • Kaio Jorge 76' goal
  • Kaio Jorge 76' goal
  • Christian 76' yellowcard
  • Christian 76' yellowcard
  • Fabricio Bruno 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Fabricio Bruno 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Erick 23'
  • yellowcard Erick 23'
  • yellowcard Santiago Arias 61'
  • yellowcard Santiago Arias 61'
Brasileiro Gameweek 30
Oct 19, 2024 1.30am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Governador Magalhaes Pinto
  • Gabriel Veron 61' goal
  • Matheus Pereira 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Everton Ribeiro 43'
  • yellowcard Luciano 59'
  • goal Luciano Rodriguez 82'
Brasileiro Gameweek 11
Jun 23, 2024 8.00pm
4
1
HT : 1 1
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Thaciano 45'+9' goal
  • Oscar Estupinan 78' goal
  • Gabriel Teixeira 90'+1' goal
  • Oscar Estupinan 90'+6' goal
  • goal Gabriel Veron 14'
  • yellowcard Lucas Silva 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Veron 48'
  • redcard Marlon 70'
  • yellowcard Ramiro 90'
Brasileiro Gameweek 29
Oct 26, 2023 12.00am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Governador Magalhaes Pinto
  • Kanu 19' goal
  • Kanu 19' goal
  • Lucas Silva 27' yellowcard
  • Lucas Silva 27' yellowcard
  • Marlon 53' goal
  • Marlon 53' goal
  • Machado 75' yellowcard
  • Machado 75' yellowcard
  • Bruno Rodrigues 88' goal
  • Bruno Rodrigues 88' goal
  • yellowcard Camilo Candido 63'
  • yellowcard Camilo Candido 63'
  • yellowcard Cauly Oliveira Souza 90'
  • yellowcard Cauly Oliveira Souza 90'
Brasileiro Gameweek 10
Jun 10, 2023 10.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Kayky 18' goal
  • Arthur Sales 66' goal
  • goal Bruno Rodrigues 30'
  • goal Wesley 45'+1'