Preview: Bahia vs Gremio - prediction, team news, lineups

Bahia and Grêmio meet on Sunday afternoon, May 17 at the Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, in the 16th round of the 2026 Brazilian Championship. The match will be broadcast by TV Globo, GeTV and Premiere.

Bahia have not won in over a month and host a Grêmio side who have just slipped into the relegation zone following defeat by Flamengo. For both teams, the match carries decisive weight: the hosts want to close the gap to the top four, while the visitors are trying to spark a recovery before the break for the World Cup. Below are the prediction and full analysis of the clash.

Match preview

Bahia arrive at the meeting with Grêmio at the lowest point of their 2026 season. The Tricolor de Aço have not won in six matches, a run that includes defeats to Flamengo, Cruzeiro and Remo — two of those in the Copa do Brasil — plus draws with Santos and São Paulo.

Their last victory came on April 11, when they beat Mirassol 2-1 away in the 11th round of the Brasileirão. Since then, the main issue for Rogério Ceni's side has been defensive: in their last three matches, the Esquadrão have fallen behind in every game, conceding the opening goal on average after 21 minutes.

Elimination from the Copa do Brasil deepened the sense of frustration. Remo won both legs of the fifth round, 3-1 in the first leg at the Arena Fonte Nova itself and 2-1 in the return at the Mangueirão, sealing a 5-2 aggregate. As a result, Bahia are left with only the Brazilian Championship for the rest of the season, repeating the storyline of their exit to O'Higgins in the Copa Libertadores qualifying round in February, which also ended any possibility of continental football. With no Copa do Nordeste due to the new CBF regulations, the club will play only 53 matches this year — the lowest number since 2005, the season in which they were relegated to Série C.

In the Brasileirão, Bahia sit sixth with 22 points from 14 matches, and still have a postponed fixture against Chapecoense to play. Their campaign has produced six wins, four draws and four defeats, with 20 goals scored and 18 conceded.

At home, however, recent form is a concern: the Tricolor have gone four straight matches without a victory at the Arena Fonte Nova, with defeats to Palmeiras and Remo and a draw with Santos, conceding seven goals in front of their own supporters during that spell. The volume of matches in 2026 is also well below last season's figure, when the club played 80 games across the Copa do Nordeste, Libertadores, Sul-Americana and Brasileirão.

The most recent meeting between the sides, in the 29th round of the 2025 Brasileirão, ended in a 4-0 thrashing for Bahia at the Fonte Nova, with goals from Iago, Willian José, David Duarte and Rodrigo Nestor. In the overall head-to-head record, however, Grêmio hold the advantage: across 63 meetings, the Imortal have won 26, the Tricolor de Aço 17, and 20 have ended in draws.

On the other side, Grêmio arrive in Salvador with some positive news. The Tricolor Gaúcho beat Confiança 3-0 away in the second leg of the Copa do Brasil fifth round, sealing their place in the last 16 with a comfortable 5-0 aggregate. Braithwaite scored twice, one from the penalty spot and the other a header from a Willian cross, with Willian himself rounding off the scoring from another penalty.

The progression met one of the targets set internally by Luís Castro's coaching staff, who had also already won the Gauchão earlier in the season — achievements that were not reached in 2025.

The situation in the Brazilian Championship, however, is delicate. Grêmio sit 17th, the first position inside the relegation zone, with 17 points from 15 matches. Their record stands at four wins, five draws and six defeats. Their most recent setback, a 1-0 defeat by Flamengo in Porto Alegre, dropped the team three places and pushed the club into the drop zone. In their last five league matches, they have managed only two victories, and the gap between sixth and 17th is just five points, turning every round into a pressure point for those in mid-table.

Luís Castro has already publicly set Grêmio's target for the coming weeks: to lift the team out of the relegation zone before the Brasileirão pauses for the World Cup. The margin is slim, and a defeat in Salvador could complicate that mission further.

On the other hand, a positive away result against a vulnerable Bahia side who have not won in over a month could represent a turning point for the Gaúcho club's campaign. Even so, the context favours the hosts: despite their poor run, Bahia still have the sixth-best attack in the competition and will have the backing of a crowd demanding immediate answers from Rogério Ceni. Grêmio, with a patched-up defence and the weight of the drop zone on their shoulders, will need to compete under pressure.

Bahia Brasileiro form:

L W L D D L

Bahia form (all competitions):

L L D D L L

Gremio Brasileiro form:

D D L W D L

Gremio form (all competitions):

W D D W L W

Team News

The good news for the Tricolor is the return of Willian José and Kanu, who have been cleared by the medical department and were already working with the ball on Friday, May 15. The session led by Rogério Ceni had a technical focus, with emphasis on ball possession in tight areas.

Ronaldo and Ruan Pablo were also seen on the pitch, but only took part in a hybrid session, alternating between the gym and the field. Meanwhile, Caio Alexandre continued his physical transition work. Santiago Mingo, on the other hand, is out of the match after picking up a third yellow card.

On the other side, for the meeting with Bahia, manager Castro will be without the suspended Pavón. As a result, Marcos Rocha is expected to step into the wide role.

Still without Arthur, Thiaguinho is the most likely candidate to fill the gap in midfield. Balbuena, who left the field against Confiança with a suspected muscle injury, is also unavailable for the match.

Bahia possible starting lineup:

Leo Vieira; Acevedo, David Duarte, Xavier, Iago Borduchi (Luciano Juba); Erick, Jean Lucas, Everton Ribeiro; Kike Olivera, Willian José, Erick Pulga. Manager: Rogerio Ceni.

Gremio possible starting lineup:

Weverton; Viery, Noriega, Wagner Leonardo; Leo Perez, Dodi, Pedro Gabriel, Willian; Gabriel Mec, Amuzu; Carlos Vinícius. Manager: Luis Castro.

We say: Bahia 2-1 Gremio

Bahia take to the field needing a win to restore confidence among their supporters after six matches without a victory. Beyond home advantage, the team are just two points behind fourth-placed São Paulo, and a win could put them right back in the fight for the top four.

Grêmio carry the lift of their Copa do Brasil progression, but the reality in the Brasileirão is different: defeat to Flamengo pushed the side into the drop zone, their defence arrives patched up with the absences of Pavón and Balbuena, and the Arena Fonte Nova is one of the toughest venues in the championship for visiting teams.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.