Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 47.31%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 47.31% | 24.42% | 28.27% |
| Both teams to score 56.5% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.13% | 45.87% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.81% | 68.18% |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.51% | 19.48% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.65% | 51.35% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.17% | 29.83% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.08% | 65.91% |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 9.51% 2-1 @ 9.4% 2-0 @ 7.77% 3-1 @ 5.13% 3-0 @ 4.24% 3-2 @ 3.1% 4-1 @ 2.1% 4-0 @ 1.73% 4-2 @ 1.27% Other @ 3.06% Total : 47.31% | 1-1 @ 11.49% 0-0 @ 5.81% 2-2 @ 5.69% 3-3 @ 1.25% Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.41% | 0-1 @ 7.03% 1-2 @ 6.96% 0-2 @ 4.25% 1-3 @ 2.81% 2-3 @ 2.29% 0-3 @ 1.72% Other @ 3.22% Total : 28.27% |