Australian A-League | Gameweek 5

Apr 5, 2021 at 10.10am UK

WIN Stadium

Wellington
2 - 3
Melbourne City

Hemed (39'), Davila (56')
Fenton (58'), Laws (62'), Devlin (88')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Good (17'), MacLaren (45'), Tilio (83')
Berenguer (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 49.75%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.61%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne City
26.96%	23.29%	49.75%

Both teams to score 59.28%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.27%

41.73%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.87%

64.13%

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.36%

28.64%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.55%

64.45%

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.07%

16.93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53%

47%

Score Analysis

Wellington Phoenix 26.96%

Melbourne City 49.75%

Draw 23.29%

Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 6.73% 1-0 @ 6.06% 2-0 @ 3.79% 3-1 @ 2.81% 3-2 @ 2.49% 3-0 @ 1.58% Other @ 3.5% Total : 26.96%	1-1 @ 10.76% 2-2 @ 5.98% 0-0 @ 4.85% 3-3 @ 1.48% Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.29%	1-2 @ 9.56% 0-1 @ 8.61% 0-2 @ 7.65% 1-3 @ 5.66% 0-3 @ 4.53% 2-3 @ 3.54% 1-4 @ 2.51% 0-4 @ 2.01% 2-4 @ 1.57% Other @ 4.1% Total : 49.75%