Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 65.1%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Congo DR had a probability of 13.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.14%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%) , while for a Congo DR win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.