Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a England win with a probability of 46.75%. A win for Croatia has a probability of 29.8% and a draw has a probability of 23.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.07%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Croatia win is 1-2 (7.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.75%).