Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 40.45%. A win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.12%) and 2-1 (7.75%). The likeliest Uzbekistan win was 0-1 (11.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.