Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 67.5%. A draw had a probability of 19.75% and a win for Panama had a probability of 12.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.26%) and 1-2 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%) , while for a Panama win it was 1-0 (4.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.