Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 55.59%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Botswana had a probability of 18.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.99%) and 1-2 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Botswana win it was 1-0 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.