Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 58.13%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Botswana had a probability of 14.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.87%) and 2-1 (7.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.76%), while for a Botswana win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.