Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cameroon win with a probability of 63.23%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Cape Verde had a probability of 14.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cameroon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.72%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%), while for a Cape Verde win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cameroon would win this match.