Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.17%) and 2-1 (7.81%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 0-1 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cape Verde in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Cape Verde.