Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Angola win with a probability of 40.58%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 30.14% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Angola win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Angola would win this match.