Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 50.26%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 21.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.6%), while for a Mauritania win it was 0-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Burkina Faso in this match.