Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Libya had a probability of 31.25% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.75%) and 2-1 (7.61%). The likeliest Libya win was 0-1 (11.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cape Verde in this match.