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Africa Cup of Nations

Mauritania national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 7, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stade Cheikha Ould Boidiya
Botswana national football team

Mauritania
1 - 0
Botswana

Bouna Amar (84')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Mohutsiwa (16'), Kopelang (21'), Mangolo (45+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Mauritania and Botswana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mauritania

All competitions
Last Game: Mauritania 0-1 Senegal
Sunday, June 9 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Botswana

Last Game: Mozambique 3-1 Botswana
Tuesday, July 2 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritania win with a probability of 37.08%. A win for Botswana had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mauritania win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.35%) and 2-1 (7.2%). The likeliest Botswana win was 0-1 (12.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mauritania in this match.

Result
MauritaniaDrawBotswana
37.08% (0.126 0.13)30.38% (0.044 0.04)32.53% (-0.168 -0.17)
Both teams to score 40.97% (-0.137 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
33.59% (-0.15 -0.15)66.4% (0.149 0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
15.14% (-0.104 -0.1)84.86% (0.10300000000001 0.1)
Mauritania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.6% (0.0010000000000048 0)34.4% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.89% (0.0010000000000012 0)71.11%
Botswana Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.45% (-0.21 -0.21)37.55% (0.211 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.67% (-0.206 -0.21)74.33% (0.206 0.21)
Score Analysis
    Mauritania 37.08%
    Botswana 32.53%
    Draw 30.38%
MauritaniaDrawBotswana
1-0 @ 13.78% (0.08 0.08)
2-0 @ 7.35% (0.041 0.04)
2-1 @ 7.2%
3-0 @ 2.62% (0.015 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.56%
3-2 @ 1.26% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 37.08%
1-1 @ 13.5%
0-0 @ 12.91% (0.07 0.07)
2-2 @ 3.53% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 30.38%
0-1 @ 12.65%
1-2 @ 6.61% (-0.037999999999999 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.2% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.16% (-0.025 -0.03)
0-3 @ 2.02% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.15% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 1.74%
Total : 32.53%

How you voted: Mauritania vs Botswana

Mauritania
66.7%
Draw
23.8%
Botswana
9.5%
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