Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 5, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Mustapha Tchaker

Algeria
2 - 0
Eq Guinea

Aouar (70'), Gouiri (90+5')
Mandrea (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Nlavo (33'), Coco (45+3'), Salvador (74'), Ndong (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Algeria and Equatorial Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Algeria

All competitions

Last Game: Uganda 1-2 Algeria
Monday, June 10 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Angola	3	3	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	-1	4
3	Mauritania	3	-1	3
4	Algeria	3	-1	2

Equatorial Guinea

All competitions

Last Game: Eq Guinea 1-0 Malawi
Monday, June 10 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	3	6	7
2	Nigeria	3	2	7
3	Ivory Coast	3	-3	3
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 71.63%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 9.25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.53%) and 3-0 (10.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 0-1 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.

Result
Algeria	Draw	Equatorial Guinea
71.63% ( -0.05)	19.12% ( 0.02)	9.25% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 36.83% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.98% (

-0)

53.02% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.39% (

-0)

74.61%

Algeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.44% (

-0.02)

13.56% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.35% (

-0.03)

40.65% (

0.03)

Equatorial Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

42.6% (

0.06)

57.4% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.74% (

0.04)

89.26% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Algeria 71.61%

Equatorial Guinea 9.25%

Draw 19.12%

Algeria	Draw	Equatorial Guinea
1-0 @ 15.54% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 15.53% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.75% ( 0) 4-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.87% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.6% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0) Other @ 2.98% Total : 71.61%	1-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.78% ( 0) 2-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.32% Total : 19.12%	0-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.33% Total : 9.25%