Champions League Gameweek 3
Real Madrid
Oct 21, 2026 8.00pm
4
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
RB Leipzig
  • Bernardo Silva 43' goal
  • Arda Güler 52' goal
  • Álvaro Carreras 68' yellowcard
  • Kylian Mbappé 83' goal
  • Yan Diomande 87' goal
  • yellowcard Rocco Reitz 70'
  • goal Tidiam Gomis 85'

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 8, 2026 8.00pm
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Inter Milan

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 68.9%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 15.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.82%) and 1-0 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.6%) , while for a RB Leipzig win it was 1-2 (4.01%).

Result

Real Madrid 68.9% ▲ (+0.32)
Draw 15.7% ▼ (-0.15)
RB Leipzig 15.43% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.88% ▲ (+0.33)

Goals

Over 1.5 85.46% ▲ (+0.28)
Under 1.5 14.54% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 2.5 68.43% ▲ (+0.38)
Under 2.5 31.57% ▼ (-0.38)
Over 3.5 47.22% ▲ (+0.44)
Under 3.5 52.78% ▼ (-0.44)
Over 4.5 35.72% ▲ (+0.47)
Under 4.5 64.28% ▼ (-0.47)

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 48.39% ▲ (+0.12)
Draw 31.39% ▼ (-0.18)
RB Leipzig 20.22% ▲ (+0.06)

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 65.11%
No Goal 3.68% ▼ (-0.07)
RB Leipzig 31.21% ▲ (+0.08)

Corners

Over 8 60.57% ▼ (-0.11)
Equal 8 9.72% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 8 29.71% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 9 50.42% ▼ (-0.09)
Equal 9 10.15% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 9 39.43% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 10.5 40.57% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 10.5 59.43% ▲ (+0.08)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 68.58% ▲ (+0.38)
Under 1.5 31.42% ▼ (-0.38)
Over 2.5 44.97% ▲ (+0.50)
Under 2.5 55.03% ▼ (-0.50)
Over 3.5 26.97% ▲ (+0.51)
Under 3.5 73.03% ▼ (-0.52)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5 46.17% ▼ (-0.20)
Under 0.5 53.83% ▲ (+0.20)
Over 1.5 20.98% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 1.5 79.02% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 2.5 7.71% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 92.29% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 2.62% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 97.38% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 68.91%
Draw 15.7%
RB Leipzig 15.43%
Real Madrid
2-1 @ 9.02% ▼ (-0.05)
2-0 @ 8.82% ▼ (-0.05)
1-0 @ 7.45% ▼ (-0.11)
3-0 @ 7.2% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 6.12% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.58% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 26.72% ▲ (+0.52)
Total : 68.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 6.6% ▼ (-0.06)
2-2 @ 4.07% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 3.68% ▼ (-0.07)
3-3 @ 1.1% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.25% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 15.7%
RB Leipzig
1-2 @ 4.01% ▼ (-0.04)
0-1 @ 3.45% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.7% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 1.61% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.32% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.37% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 15.43%

Head to Head

Champions League
Real Madrid
Mar 6, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
RB Leipzig
  • Vinicius Junior 54' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 65' goal
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 73' yellowcard
  • Toni Kroos 75' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Xaver Schlager 20'
  • yellowcard David Raum 50'
  • goal Willi Orban 68'
  • yellowcard Willi Orban 71'
Champions League
RB Leipzig
Feb 13, 2024 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Red Bull Arena
Real Madrid
  • Marco Rose 45' yellowcard
  • Mohamed Simakan 53' yellowcard
  • Yussuf Poulsen 77' yellowcard
  • Benjamin Sesko 85' yellowcard
  • goal Brahim Diaz 48'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 66'
  • yellowcard Vinicius Junior 85'
Champions League
RB Leipzig
Oct 25, 2022 8.00pm
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT
Real Madrid
  • Josko Gvardiol 13' goal
  • Christopher Nkunku 18' goal
  • Timo Werner 81' goal
  • goal Vinicius Junior 44'
  • goal Rodrygo 90'+4'
Champions League
Real Madrid
Sep 14, 2022 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
RB Leipzig
  • Federico Valverde 80' goal
  • Marco Asensio 90'+1' goal

Form Data

Real Madrid 4 - 1 Sevilla
Roma 3 - 4 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 1 - 0 Villarreal
Atletico 2 - 1 Real Madrid
Elche 2 - 3 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 4 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Bayern 6 - 1 RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig 1 - 0 PSV
RB Leipzig 6 - 0 Frankfurt
B. Leverkusen 2 - 0 RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig 5 - 0 Hamburger SV
Como 4 - 1 RB Leipzig

Build-up

How to watch
Head to head