La Liga Gameweek 8
Oct 10, 2026 8.00pm
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid vs Villarreal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Sep 20, 2026 3.15pm
Atletico 2 - 1 Real Madrid
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappé 

Villarreal

All competitions
Last game
Sep 20, 2026 5.30pm
Villarreal 3 - 1 Levante
Goals scored
13
Top scorer
Pape Gueye

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Madrid win with a probability of 64.65%. A draw has a probability of 19.37% and a win for Villarreal has a probability of 15.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 2-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.37%) , while for a Villarreal win it is 1-2 (3.97%).

Result

Real Madrid 64.65% ▼ (-0.27)
Draw 19.37% ▼ (-0.35)
Villarreal 15.95% ▲ (+0.55)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.39% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.64% ▲ (+0.32)
Under 1.5 17.36% ▼ (-0.32)
Over 2.5 62.66% ▲ (+0.25)
Under 2.5 37.34% ▼ (-0.25)
Over 3.5 41.89% ▲ (+0.86)
Under 3.5 58.11% ▼ (-0.86)
Over 4.5 28.29% ▲ (+0.45)
Under 4.5 71.71% ▼ (-0.46)

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 47.73% ▲ (+1.79)
Draw 35.08% ▼ (-0.21)
Villarreal 17.19% ▼ (-1.59)

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 64.37% ▲ (+0.86)
No Goal 4.16% ▼ (-0.25)
Villarreal 31.47% ▼ (-0.61)

Corners

Over 8 71.64% ▲ (+0.77)
Equal 8 8.89% ▼ (-0.34)
Under 8 19.47% ▼ (-0.43)
Over 9 61.56% ▲ (+1.14)
Equal 9 10.08% ▼ (-0.37)
Under 9 28.36% ▼ (-0.77)
Over 10.5 51.01% ▲ (+1.45)
Under 10.5 48.99% ▼ (-1.45)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 64.06% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 1.5 35.94% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 2.5 37.4% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 2.5 62.6% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 3.5 18.21% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 3.5 81.79% ▲ (+0.06)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5 51.52% ▲ (+0.28)
Under 0.5 48.48% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 1.5 23.47% ▲ (+0.62)
Under 1.5 76.53% ▼ (-0.63)
Over 2.5 8.19% ▲ (+0.42)
Under 2.5 91.81% ▼ (-0.43)
Over 3.5 2.46% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 3.5 97.54% ▼ (-0.06)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 64.65%
Draw 19.36%
Villarreal 15.95%
Real Madrid
2-0 @ 9.89% ▲ (+0.22)
1-0 @ 9.52% ▼ (-0.25)
2-1 @ 9.41% ▼ (-0.36)
3-0 @ 6.85% ▼ (-0.14)
3-1 @ 6.63% ▲ (+0.09)
3-2 @ 4.33% ▲ (+0.13)
Other @ 18.02% ▲ (+0.06)
Total : 64.65%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.37% ▼ (-0.17)
2-2 @ 5.26% ▲ (+0.09)
0-0 @ 4.16% ▼ (-0.25)
3-3 @ 1.38% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.19% ▼ (-0.10)
Total : 19.36%
Villarreal
1-2 @ 3.97% ▼ (-0.03)
0-1 @ 3.64% ▲ (+0.10)
2-3 @ 2.1% ▲ (+0.16)
0-2 @ 1.72% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 1.71% ▲ (+0.23)
Other @ 2.27% ▲ (+0.17)
Total : 15.95%

Head to Head

La Liga
Jan 24, 2026 8.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de la Cerámica
  • Rafa Marin 24' yellowcard
  • Rafa Marín 24' yellowcard
  • Tani Oluwaseyi 70' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Pepe 70' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Pépé 70' yellowcard
  • Thomas Partey 77' yellowcard
  • Ayoze Perez 77' yellowcard
  • Ayoze Pérez 77' yellowcard
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 47'
  • goal Kylian Mbappé 47'
  • yellowcard Gonzalo Garcia 74'
  • yellowcard Gonzalo García 74'
  • yellowcard Brahim Diaz 80'
  • yellowcard Brahim Díaz 80'
  • yellowcard Kylian Mbappe 90'+4'
  • yellowcard Kylian Mbappé 90'+4'
La Liga
Oct 4, 2025 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 28
Mar 15, 2025 5.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio de la Ceramica
  • Juan Foyth 7' goal
  • Sergi Cardona 50' yellowcard
  • Juan Foyth 75' yellowcard
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 17'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 23'
  • yellowcard Aurelien Tchouameni 33'
La Liga Gameweek 9
Oct 5, 2024 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
  • Federico Valverde 14' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 73' goal
  • yellowcard Kiko Femenia 33'
La Liga Gameweek 37
May 19, 2024 6.00pm
4
4
HT : 1 4
FT Estadio de la Ceramica
  • Alexander Sorloth 39' goal
  • Alexander Sorloth 48' goal
  • Alberto Moreno 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Alexander Sorloth 52' goal
  • Alexander Sorloth 56' goal
  • Bertrand Traore 84' yellowcard
  • Marcelino 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Arda Guler 14'
  • goal Joselu 30'
  • goal Lucas Vazquez 40'
  • goal Arda Guler 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 66'
  • yellowcard Dani Ceballos 86'
La Liga Gameweek 17
Dec 17, 2023 8.00pm
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
  • Jude Bellingham 25' goal
  • Rodrygo 37' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 64' goal
  • Jude Bellingham 67' yellowcard
  • Luka Modric 68' goal
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 83' yellowcard
  • goal Jose Luis Morales 54'
  • yellowcard Adria Altimira 67'
  • yellowcard Ilias Akhomach 74'
  • yellowcard Etienne Capoue 85'

Build-up

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