La Liga Gameweek 5
Sep 12, 2026 8.00pm
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Sep 4, 2026 8.00pm
Betis 1 - 0 Real Madrid
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappé 

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 5.30pm
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 2 Racing
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Sergio Camello

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Madrid win with a probability of 74.53%. A draw has a probability of 16.07% and a win for Rayo Vallecano has a probability of 9.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 2-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (11.18%) and 3-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (6.57%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it is 0-1 (2.95%).

Result

Real Madrid 74.53% (+0.29)
Draw 16.07% (-0.49)
Rayo Vallecano 9.41% (+0.23)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.4% (-1.29)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.54% (-0.80)
Under 1.5 19.46% (+0.81)
Over 2.5 61.12% (-1.06)
Under 2.5 38.88% (+1.06)
Over 3.5 40.25% (-1.00)
Under 3.5 59.75% (+1.00)
Over 4.5 29.12% (-0.81)
Under 4.5 70.88% (+0.80)

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 54.64% (+1.39)
Draw 32.23% (-1.15)
Rayo Vallecano 13.13% (-0.24)

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 71.07% (+0.22)
No Goal 5.34% (+0.21)
Rayo Vallecano 23.59% (-0.43)

Corners

Over 8 67.67% (-3.50)
Equal 8 9.4% (-0.17)
Under 8 22.94% (+3.68)
Over 9 57.34% (-2.92)
Equal 9 10.33% (-0.59)
Under 9 32.33% (+3.50)
Over 10.5 46.84% (-2.07)
Under 10.5 53.16% (+2.07)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 68.54% (-0.69)
Under 1.5 31.46% (+0.70)
Over 2.5 43.25% (-0.97)
Under 2.5 56.75% (+0.97)
Over 3.5 23.31% (-0.81)
Under 3.5 76.69% (+0.80)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5 39.25% (-0.65)
Under 0.5 60.75% (+0.65)
Over 1.5 13.89% (-0.28)
Under 1.5 86.11% (+0.29)
Over 2.5 3.7% (-0.15)
Under 2.5 96.3% (+0.15)
Over 3.5 0.94% (-0.08)
Under 3.5 99.06% (+0.08)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 74.52%
Draw 16.07%
Rayo Vallecano 9.42%
Real Madrid
2-0 @ 11.97% (+0.39)
1-0 @ 11.18% (+0.58)
3-0 @ 9.05% (+0.13)
2-1 @ 8.87% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 6.97% (-0.12)
3-2 @ 3.26% (-0.04)
Other @ 23.22% (-0.64)
Total : 74.52%
Draw
1-1 @ 6.57% (-0.24)
0-0 @ 5.34% (+0.21)
2-2 @ 3.41% (-0.14)
Other @ 0.09% (-0.17)
Total : 16.07%
Rayo Vallecano
0-1 @ 2.95% (+0.04)
1-2 @ 2.64% (-0.07)
2-3 @ 1.04%
Other @ 0.85% (+0.10)
Total : 9.42%

Head to Head

La Liga Gameweek 22
Feb 1, 2026 1.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
  • Brahim Díaz 10' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 15' goal
  • Dani Ceballos 46' yellowcard
  • Gonzalo García 60' yellowcard
  • David Alaba 77' yellowcard
  • Rodrygo 77' yellowcard
  • Kylian Mbappé 90'+10' yellowcard
  • goal Jorge de Frutos 49'
  • yellowcard Óscar Valentín 56'
  • yellowcard Pedro Díaz 56'
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 77'
  • yellowcard Carlos Martín 83'
  • yellowcard Luiz Felipe 83'
La Liga
Nov 9, 2025 3.15pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 27
Mar 9, 2025 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
  • Kylian Mbappe 30' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 34' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 79' yellowcard
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 85' yellowcard
  • Luka Modric 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Pedro Diaz 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Gerard Gumbau 63'
La Liga Gameweek 17
Dec 14, 2024 8.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Unai Lopez 4' goal
  • Augusto Batalla 27' yellowcard
  • Randy Nteka 34' yellowcard
  • Abdul Mumin 36' goal
  • Isi 44' yellowcard
  • Isi 64' goal
  • Sergio Camello 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Federico Valverde 39'
  • goal Jude Bellingham 45'
  • goal Rodrygo 56'
  • yellowcard Luka Modric 62'
  • yellowcard Vinicius Junior 74'
La Liga Gameweek 25
Feb 18, 2024 1.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Raul de Tomas 27' goal
  • Isi 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Ivan Balliu 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Raul de Tomas 81' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Garcia 82' yellowcard
  • goal Joselu 3'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 61'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 90'+3'
  • redcard Dani Carvajal 90'+5'
La Liga Gameweek 12
Nov 5, 2023 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
  • Eduardo Camavinga 62' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 74' yellowcard
  • Antonio Rudiger 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Andrei Ratiu 44'
  • yellowcard Pathe Ciss 57'
  • yellowcard Oscar Trejo 88'
  • yellowcard Stole Dimitrievski 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Florian Lejeune 90'+6'