La Liga Gameweek 5
Real Madrid
Sep 12, 2026 8.00pm
4
1
HT : 3 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Rayo Vallecano
  • Kylian Mbappé  14' goal
  • Álvaro Carreras 17' goal
  • Jude Bellingham 35' goal
  • Kylian Mbappé  90'+1' goal
  • goal Sergio Camello 51'
  • yellowcard Pathé Ciss 76'

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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Feature

The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Sep 4, 2026 8.00pm
Betis 1 - 0 Real Madrid
Goals scored
17
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappé 

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 5.30pm
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 2 Racing
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Sergio Camello

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 74.51%. A draw had a probability of 16.11% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 9.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.19%) and 3-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.6%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (2.95%).

Result

Real Madrid 74.51% ▼ (-0.02)
Draw 16.11% ▲ (+0.04)
Rayo Vallecano 9.4% ▼ (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.41% ▲ (+0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.55% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 19.45% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 61.12%
Under 2.5 38.88%
Over 3.5 40.25%
Under 3.5 59.75%
Over 4.5 29.08% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 4.5 70.92% ▲ (+0.05)

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 54.72% ▲ (+0.08)
Draw 32.17% ▼ (-0.06)
Rayo Vallecano 13.11% ▼ (-0.03)

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 71.12% ▲ (+0.06)
No Goal 5.33% ▼ (-0.01)
Rayo Vallecano 23.55% ▼ (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 67.84% ▲ (+0.18)
Equal 8 9.4%
Under 8 22.76% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 9 57.49% ▲ (+0.15)
Equal 9 10.35% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 9 32.16% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 10.5 46.95% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 10.5 53.05% ▼ (-0.11)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 68.53% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 31.47% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 43.23% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 56.77% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 23.28% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 76.72% ▲ (+0.04)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5 39.31% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 0.5 60.69% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 1.5 13.9% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 86.1% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 3.68% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 96.32% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 0.93% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 99.07% ▲ (+0.01)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 74.5%
Draw 16.11%
Rayo Vallecano 9.41%
Real Madrid
2-0 @ 11.95% ▼ (-0.03)
1-0 @ 11.19% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 9.05%
2-1 @ 8.88% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 6.98% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 3.26%
Other @ 23.19% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 74.5%
Draw
1-1 @ 6.6% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 5.33% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 3.43% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.09%
Total : 16.11%
Rayo Vallecano
0-1 @ 2.95%
1-2 @ 2.65% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.04%
Other @ 0.84% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 9.41%

Head to Head

La Liga Gameweek 22
Real Madrid
Feb 1, 2026 1.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Rayo Vallecano
  • Brahim Díaz 10' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 15' goal
  • Dani Ceballos 46' yellowcard
  • Gonzalo García 60' yellowcard
  • David Alaba 77' yellowcard
  • Rodrygo 77' yellowcard
  • Kylian Mbappé 90'+10' yellowcard
  • goal Jorge de Frutos 49'
  • yellowcard Óscar Valentín 56'
  • yellowcard Pedro Díaz 56'
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 77'
  • yellowcard Carlos Martín 83'
  • yellowcard Luiz Felipe 83'
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
Nov 9, 2025 3.15pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Real Madrid
La Liga Gameweek 27
Real Madrid
Mar 9, 2025 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Rayo Vallecano
  • Kylian Mbappe 30' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 34' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 79' yellowcard
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 85' yellowcard
  • Luka Modric 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Pedro Diaz 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Gerard Gumbau 63'
La Liga Gameweek 17
Rayo Vallecano
Dec 14, 2024 8.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio de Vallecas
Real Madrid
  • Unai Lopez 4' goal
  • Augusto Batalla 27' yellowcard
  • Randy Nteka 34' yellowcard
  • Abdul Mumin 36' goal
  • Isi 44' yellowcard
  • Isi 64' goal
  • Sergio Camello 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Federico Valverde 39'
  • goal Jude Bellingham 45'
  • goal Rodrygo 56'
  • yellowcard Luka Modric 62'
  • yellowcard Vinicius Junior 74'
La Liga Gameweek 25
Rayo Vallecano
Feb 18, 2024 1.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio de Vallecas
Real Madrid
  • Raul de Tomas 27' goal
  • Isi 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Ivan Balliu 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Raul de Tomas 81' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Garcia 82' yellowcard
  • goal Joselu 3'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 61'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 90'+3'
  • redcard Dani Carvajal 90'+5'
La Liga Gameweek 12
Real Madrid
Nov 5, 2023 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Rayo Vallecano
  • Eduardo Camavinga 62' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 74' yellowcard
  • Antonio Rudiger 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Andrei Ratiu 44'
  • yellowcard Pathe Ciss 57'
  • yellowcard Oscar Trejo 88'
  • yellowcard Stole Dimitrievski 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Florian Lejeune 90'+6'

Form Data

Real Madrid 2 - 1 Inter Milan
Betis 1 - 0 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 4 - 0 Malaga
Real Madrid 4 - 1 Real Sociedad
Espanyol 1 - 2 Real Madrid
Schalke 0 - 3 Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 2 Racing
Barcelona 5 - 2 Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Alaves
Sevilla 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Ipswich 3 - 0 Rayo Vallecano
Charleroi 2 - 3 Rayo Vallecano

Build-up

Head to head