La Liga Gameweek 38
May 23, 2026 8.00pm
Estadio de Mendizorroza

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Alaves

All competitions
Last game
May 17, 2026 6.00pm
Real Oviedo 0 - 1 Alaves
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Toni Martinez

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
May 17, 2026 6.00pm
Rayo Vallecano 2 - 0 Villarreal
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Jorge de Frutos

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Alaves win with a probability of 37.27%. A win for Rayo Vallecano has a probability of 35.93% and a draw has a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Alaves win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win is 0-1 (9.17%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.61%).

Result

Alaves 37.27%
Draw 26.8%
Rayo Vallecano 35.93%

Both Teams to Score: 

54.61%

Goals

Over 1.5 73.81% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 26.19% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 49.04%
Under 2.5 50.96%
Over 3.5 27.13% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 72.87% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 14.19% (-0.05)
Under 4.5 85.81% (+0.05)

First Half Winner

Alaves 27.28%
Draw 45.58%
Rayo Vallecano 27.14%

Team To Score First

Alaves 44.47%
No Goal 7.36%
Rayo Vallecano 48.17%

Corners

Over 8 63.97%
Equal 8 11.25%
Under 8 24.78%
Over 9 51.88%
Equal 9 12.09%
Under 9 36.03%
Over 10.5 40.06%
Under 10.5 59.94%

Alaves Goals

Over 1.5 36.68% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 63.32% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 14.15% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 85.85% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 4.25% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 95.75% (+0.02)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5 69.87% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 30.13% (+0.03)
Over 1.5 36.01% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 63.99% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 13.7% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 86.3% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.27%
Under 3.5 95.73%

Score analysis

Alaves 37.26%
Draw 26.8%
Rayo Vallecano 35.93%
Alaves
1-0 @ 9.65%
2-1 @ 8.43% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 6.3%
3-1 @ 3.65% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 2.69% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.42% (-0.02)
Other @ 4.12% (-0.01)
Total : 37.26%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.61%
0-0 @ 7.36%
2-2 @ 5.56%
3-3 @ 1.14% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.8%
Rayo Vallecano
0-1 @ 9.17%
1-2 @ 8.46% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5.87% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.72% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.33% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.24% (-0.01)
Other @ 4.14%
Total : 35.93%

Head to Head

Copa del Rey
Jan 14, 2026 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de Mendizorroza
  • Toni Martinez 49' goal
  • Toni Martínez 49' goal
  • Carlos Vicente 64' yellowcard
  • Carles Alena 64' yellowcard
  • Jon Guridi 64' yellowcard
  • Carles Aleñá 64' yellowcard
  • Antonio Blanco 85' yellowcard
  • Carlos Vicente 89' goal
  • Jonny Castro 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Jonny Otto 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Pep Chavarria 40'
  • yellowcard Alvaro Garcia 40'
  • yellowcard Pep Chavarría 40'
  • yellowcard Álvaro García 40'
  • yellowcard Isi 61'
  • yellowcard Isi Palazón 61'
  • yellowcard Jorge de Frutos 62'
  • yellowcard Alexandre Alemao 83'
  • yellowcard Alexandre Zurawski 83'
La Liga
Oct 26, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 29
Mar 29, 2025 5.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio de Mendizorroza
  • Pau Cabanes De La Torre 16' yellowcard
  • Santiago Mourino 77' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Tenaglia 80' yellowcard
  • goal Pathe Ciss 2'
  • yellowcard Pelayo Fernandez Balboa 8'
  • yellowcard Randy Nteka 36'
  • yellowcard Oscar Valentin 42'
  • goal Pedro Diaz 58'
  • yellowcard Augusto Batalla 62'
  • yellowcard Aridane Hernandez 78'
La Liga Gameweek 11
Oct 26, 2024 3.15pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Abdul Mumin 22' redcard
  • Unai Lopez 49' yellowcard
  • Antonio Sivera 80' goal
  • Pep Chavarria 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Manu Sanchez 50'
  • yellowcard Moussa Diarra 67'
  • yellowcard Jon Guridi 77'
  • yellowcard Joan Jordan 88'
La Liga Gameweek 28
Mar 10, 2024 1.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Mendizorroza
  • Abdel Abqar 28' yellowcard
  • Andoni Gorosabel 44' goal
  • Antonio Blanco 90'+7' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Isi 13'
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 30'
La Liga Gameweek 5
Sep 15, 2023 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Aridane Hernandez 19' yellowcard
  • Isi 43' goal
  • Jorge de Frutos 82' goal
  • Raul de Tomas 90'+5' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ruben Duarte 23'
  • yellowcard Luis Garcia 24'
  • yellowcard Alex Sola 41'
  • yellowcard Ianis Hagi 90'+6'