Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.72%. A win for Getafe had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.35%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Getafe win was 1-0 (10.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.