Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 60.36%. A draw had a probability of 20.64% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a AEK Athens win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.14%) and 2-0 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.