Conference League
Apr 16, 2026 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT OPAP Arena
  • Zini 13' goal
  • Răzvan Marin 36' yellowcard
  • Zini 51' goal
  • Niclas Eliasson 71' yellowcard
  • Mijat Gacinovic 77' yellowcard
  • Roberto Pereyra 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 27'
  • yellowcard Alexandre Zurawski 46'
  • yellowcard Pedro Díaz 55'
  • yellowcard Óscar Valentín 55'
  • goal Isi Palazón 60'
  • yellowcard Nobel Mendy 80'

AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

AEK Athens

All competitions
Conference League
Last game
Apr 9, 2026 5.45pm
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 0 AEK Athens

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Conference League
Last game
Apr 9, 2026 5.45pm
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 0 AEK Athens

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 60.36%. A draw had a probability of 20.64% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 19%.

The most likely scoreline for a AEK Athens win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.14%) and 2-0 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.

Result

AEK Athens 60.36% (+0.04)
Draw 20.64% (-0.04)
Rayo Vallecano 19%

Both Teams to Score: 

52.42% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.6% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 20.4% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 57.26% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 42.74% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 33.89% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 66.11% (-0.08)
Over 4.5 21.51% (+0.05)
Under 4.5 78.49% (-0.05)

First Half Winner

AEK Athens 45.67%
Draw 36.17%
Rayo Vallecano 18.15%

Team To Score First

AEK Athens 67.45% (+0.02)
No Goal 5.14% (-0.03)
Rayo Vallecano 27.41%

Corners

Over 8 56.24%
Equal 8 11.13%
Under 8 32.63%
Over 9 45.03%
Equal 9 11.21%
Under 9 43.76%
Over 10.5 34.63%
Under 10.5 65.37%

AEK Athens Goals

Over 1.5 57.47% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 42.53% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 31.12% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 68.88% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 13.8% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 86.2% (-0.04)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5 54.01% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 45.99% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 22.8% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 77.2% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 7.31% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 92.69% (+0.01)
Over 3.5 2.04% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 97.96% (+0.01)

Score analysis

AEK Athens 60.35%
Draw 20.64%
Rayo Vallecano 18.99%
AEK Athens
2-1 @ 10.21% (-0.01)
1-0 @ 10.14% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 9.94%
3-0 @ 7.04% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.09%
3-2 @ 3.22% (+0.02)
Other @ 13.71% (+0.05)
Total : 60.35%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.81%
0-0 @ 5.14% (-0.03)
2-2 @ 4.63%
Other @ 0.09% (-0.02)
Total : 20.64%
Rayo Vallecano
0-1 @ 5.1% (-0.02)
1-2 @ 5.03% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 2.61%
1-3 @ 1.65% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.57%
0-3 @ 1.08% (-0.02)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 18.99%

Head to Head

Conference League
Apr 9, 2026 5.45pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Ilias Akhomach 2' goal
  • Unai López 45'+2' goal
  • Pedro Díaz 55' yellowcard
  • Unai López 56' yellowcard
  • Alexandre Zurawski 56' yellowcard
  • Alfonso Espino 66' yellowcard
  • Isi Palazón 74' yellowcard
  • Sergio Camello 80' yellowcard
  • Óscar Valentín 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Răzvan Marin 46'
  • yellowcard Mijat Gacinovic 71'
  • yellowcard Zini 71'
  • yellowcard Dereck Kutesa 87'