Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 54.07%. A draw had a probability of 27.16% and a win for Elche had a probability of 18.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.74%) , while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16% likelihood.