Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 39.42%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 28.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a AEK Athens win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.74%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.