Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 29.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (9.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.