Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 46.24%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (7.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.