Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 46.81%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 1-2 (7.17%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.