Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 37.32%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 36.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (5.73%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (8.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.