Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 44.23%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Alaves win was 0-1 (9.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.